Weekend Warrior for July 19: Picks for Diana, San Clemente, Ohio Derby
The first Saturday of the summer’s two big race meets finds stakes doubleheaders at both Saratoga and Del Mar. Saratoga offers the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana Stakes, supported by the Grade 3, $150,000 Sanford. Del Mar presents the Grade 2, $200,000 San Clemente Handicap, backed up by the $90,000 Osunitas Stakes.
Diana Stakes
Alterite will be making her 2014 bow here. She was a decisive winner of the Grade 1 Garden City (now the Belmont Oaks) in her U.S. debut last year, followed with a narrowly beaten second in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, and then was an excellent third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf to the top-class Dank. But while Alterite might well win this if she is able to duplicate her Breeders’ Cup performance, and even though she has one of the best layoff trainers in the business in Chad Brown, I can’t endorse her off an 8 1/2-month layoff in a spot as tough as this, especially at what are likely to be unappealing odds.
Tannery was a fine second in the New York Stakes most recently to Riposte, who has emerged as one of the best grass females in the nation. But Tannery is at her best with a little more distance than this nine-furlong event affords.
Emollient is another Grade 1 winner, as is Discreet Marq, but I lean against both. I can’t make an excuse for Emollient losing any of her three starts this year, and I suspect that Discreet Marq might want a slightly shorter distance.
Stephanie’s Kitten is yet another Grade 1 winner, but frankly, I don’t know what to expect from her. She finished well when fifth in the Just a Game last time out and galloped out nicely. However, through the first half of that race, she ran as though she wanted to be retired.
I haven’t been her biggest fan, but I was impressed with Strathnaver’s narrowly beaten second in the Just a Game most recently, and I’m going with her. Strathnaver never really had a clear run to unwind through much of the stretch of the Just a Game until late. But when she did get loose, she finished fast and just missed catching the much-improved Coffee Clique. More importantly, if the Teletimer is to be believed, Strathnaver finished like a wild horse in that race. According to DRF ’s Formulator, she went her final quarter-mile in 21.46 seconds and her final half-mile in 44.18. That, and the fact that she won the 12-furlong Bewitch in her second U.S. start, suggests that the added distance she gets in the Diana should be right in her wheelhouse.
San Clemente Handicap
I remain a skeptic of My Conquestadory, who is still more hype than actual performance and who drew terribly here. I respect Diversy Harbor, the runner-up in the American Oaks. But if you like her, then you can also like Tiz the Key, who is my play.
Tiz the Key finished less than a length behind Diversy Harbor when fourth in the American Oaks but did the dirty work in that race by keeping the pace fairly honest. I like the cutback in distance for Tiz a Key, and she can now stalk from close range and produce a stronger finishing kick.
Ohio Derby
This seems like a good spot to try a bit of a price because the name horses, Harry’s Holiday and Almost Famous, appear vulnerable. The jury is out as to whether Harry’s Holiday can be as effective on dirt as he has been on occasion on synthetic, and Almost Famous doesn’t seem as tough without an uncontested lead, which he isn’t likely to get.
The streaking Jessica’s Star will be a handful, but if you agree, then you should consider Russellin a viable alternative. Russellin finished fourth behind Jessica’s Star last time in the Iowa Derby but might have been short coming off a sprint and could be tougher this time. Russellin was much the best in winning while routing three and four starts back, when allowed to drop back and make one run, and is set up here to do just that.