Weekend Warrior for July 12: Picks for Parx Dash, American Derby, Modesty
The stakes cupboard is empty Saturday in my home state of Kentucky, where Ellis Park’s feature is a second-level allowance. So, the Warrior is gazing across state borders, looking north for stakes-betting opportunities.
Although this Saturday’s racing doesn’t compare to last, there are still a number of quality graded stakes across the country, with Arlington Park in Illinois having a particularly good card.
I will tackle Arlington later in this column, but for starters, let’s handicap the turf sprinters racing at Parx.
Parx Dash Handicap
As usual, the Parx Dash drew many of the best grass sprinters around. Ben’s Cat, a 26-time winner, can surpass $2 million in earnings with a victory; Marchman ranks as one of the top in-form grass sprinters in the country; and Stormofthecentury is a course specialist who went 2 for 2 in races at Parx going the Parx Dash distance of five furlongs last year.
Though all three merit respect, the choice is Tightend Touchdown, the 3-1 second favorite on the morning line but a horse who could drift above that due to the popularity of Ben’s Cat and the current hot form of Marchman.
Tightend Touchdown ran well in stakes over this course in 2013, when he was second behind Ben’s Cat in this race and the runner-up to Stormofthecentury in the Turf Monster. Both times, Tightend Touchdown caught wet turf, and neither race set up particularly well for him. He was forced to chase a blistering pace in the Parx Dash and then was hounded into quick splits in the Turf Monster.
There is no mistaking Tightend Touchdown’s quality, as he proved by finishing in a dead heat for second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, ending up on even terms for the place with Reneesgotzip and running a half-length behind Mizdirection.
After a dull effort to begin his year at Gulfstream, Tightend Touchdown rebounded with a victory in the Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup at Penn National, defeating Stormofthecentury and Bold Thunder, another Parx Dash starter.
Tightend Touchdown showed a new dimension by rallying successfully from fifth – when in the past he had only run his best races by racing first or second early. So, jockey Kendrick Carmouche has options as to where to place Tightend Touchdown – a key in a speed-laden race.
American Derby
When Schoolofhardrocks came on the scene last summer at Del Mar, winning a one-mile race going away, there were some who viewed him as a potential Kentucky Derby horse. He appeared talented and had the pedigree to stay a distance of ground.
Unfortunately, he just couldn’t run a lick on dirt, as he showed with thumpings in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.
What Schoolofhardrocks still can do well, however, is run on Polytrack and turf. And that’s all that matters as it applies to the American Derby, a 1 3/16-mile race for 3-year-olds on grass at Arlington.
Second in the Desert Code when first placed on turf going 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill at Santa Anita, he moved forward noticeably when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for an allowance May 31.
Equipped with blinkers for the first time, Schoolofhardrocks showed natural speed but was ratable enough to avoid getting involved with a run-off horse for the first three-quarters of the race. Instead, he patiently bided his time, and when the closers began to come to him at the head of the stretch, he powered away as much the best.
This is a long striding horse who should have no problem with an extra sixteenth in the American Derby, and his tactical speed should allow him to be placed in a perfect position by jockey Victor Espinoza.
He’s 3-1 on the line, a price that seems overly generous. He seems more likely to go off at 2-1 but would still merit play as an apparent standout.
Modesty Handicap
The Modesty drew a deep and closely matched group, with 14 in the body of the race, plus one more on the also-eligible list.
With little separating the contenders, the Warrior went searching for value and landed on 15-1 outsider Every Way.
Primarily a turf/Polytrack performer, Every Way caught the eye with how well she performed in a $75,000 stakes at Canterbury recently when running a close second in the mud to the battle-tested dirt mare Gold Medal Dancer. That performance earned Every Way an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, a number that if repeated would give her a strong chance to challenge in the Modesty.
On arguably her best surface, grass, expect her repeat it if Every Way can handle the stretch out to 1 3/16 miles. She also likes give in the turf, a distinct possibility with the forecast for Saturday calling for morning showers..