Weekend Warrior for July 11: Picks for Modesty, Stars and Stripes, Dick Memorial

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Across much of the country on Saturday, the stakes emphasis is on grass racing – with six of day’s eight graded stakes scheduled for turf. Included among those six are four from Arlington Park, which is having its Arlington Million Preview Day, and two of the Warrior’s plays this week will be in those, plus another in the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial at Delaware.

Let’s kick things off with Arlington first.

Modesty Handicap

Serving as the local prep for the Grade 1 Beverly D. next month, this race drew some out-of-town invaders who might not otherwise have come for the race if there were not a bigger prize down the line. The shippers include Riposte from New York for Bill Mott, Gaga A from California for Neil Drysdale, and Overheard from Canada for Malcolm Pierce.

It is Overheard whom I find an appealing wager, particularly if she sticks to her 5-1 morning line. This is a battle-tested mare with two graded stakes victories and earnings of more than $500,000, and she is in top form.

Last out in the Grade 2 Nassau at her home base of Woodbine on May 23, she rallied from eighth, led briefly in midstretch, and ended up third, beaten a length and just a head for the place. Although the winner, Sky Treasure, came back to run poorly in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly, most exiting the race have subsequently performed well. Three were next-out winners, including fifth-place Strut the Course, who would take the Dance Smartly.

The 92 Beyer Speed Figure that Overheard earned for the Nassau, the top last-race Beyer in this field, also appears spot on, as reflected by the fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-place finishers all running Beyers in the low 90s in their subsequent starts.

I’m expecting odds in the 7-2 range come post time, though one can hold out hope for the morning line.

Stars and Stripes

With numerous horses in this race cross-entered in other races Saturday, most notably The Pizza Man, take note of which horses go where when scratches are announced Saturday.

If The Pizza Man comes out of the Stars and Stripes, my value-based selection is longshot Roman Approval. A speed horse jumping up in class, he has shown improvement since being stretched out in distance – in great part because he has faced less competition for the lead.

Coming off a first-level allowance win at Belmont, I suspect none of the other riders in the race are going to want to run with him early with their mounts and compromise their chances – not that there is a lot of speed in the race anyway.

Xtra Luck likely will be placed in a stalking position in second, a style he used effectively to win the Louisville Handicap on May 23. I wasn’t overwhelmed by the competition that Xtra Luck defeated, however, and with one of the other favorites, Three Hearts, being a mare, and not particularly a standout one, this race looks ripe for a price.

Hopefully, Roman Approval is that horse.

Robert G. Dick Memorial

There is no doubt that Rosalind and Kitten’s Point are the proven class horses, and with both having won at this distance of 1 3/8 miles or longer, neither can be played against with the opinion that they can’t get the trip.

They can be played against due to lacking value. They haven’t a prayer of going off as rich as their 5-2 and 4-1 morning lines.

So, from a value perspective, I will take a chance with longshot Fasnacloich, who is perfect in two starts on the Delaware turf, a record that includes a blowout score in the Justakiss Stakes on June 10.

She lacks experience going beyond 1 1/8 miles, a potential disadvantage, but with Irish bloodlines on the dam side of her pedigree, there is hope that she can stretch out. Her best chance to handle the distance would seem to be at Delaware, where she ran a 93 Beyer in taking the Justakiss.