Weekend Warrior for Jan. 4: Picks for Marshua's River, San Gabriel, Wintergreen

Handicappers looking for deep stakes fields in which to wager will likely have to look beyond dirt racing this Saturday. The three graded dirt stakes around the country – the Jerome, Old Hat, and Santa Ynez – drew an average of six horses.

The more appealing stakes from a wagering standpoint are being contested on the grass, and on Polytrack at Turfway. Here’s a look at them, and value plays for each.

Marshua’s River

The Marshua’s River, a 1 1/16-mile turf race that attracted 12 entries at Gulfstream Park, is led by Cardinal Handicap winner Abaco and Claiming Crown Tiara winner Deanaallen’skitten.

They are the two most likely winners, being classy, in-form runners coming off victories that earned them Beyer Speed Figures in the 90s.
Their virtues are obvious, however, and horseplayers can likely forget about backing them at anything close to their morning-line odds of 3-1 and 4-1, respectively.

Their popularity at the betting windows may create value on alternatives – perhaps on a horse like Poetic Kid, who may drift higher than her 10-1 morning line despite having won four straight.

Because her victories came in lesser races and resulted in Beyers in the 80s, the suspicion is that bettors will view her as unable to keep up with the stakes-proven favorites.

That may prove true, but at 10-1 or higher, I would rather take the opposite stance. This is a mare whose confidence is sky high, and in winning her last race, an off-the-grass race at Churchill Downs, she impressed in romping over a dirt surface for which she is not bred.
Poetic Kid’s bloodlines are for the grass. So with the surface switch back to the turf for the Marshua’s River, a forward move would not surprise in the least.

San Gabriel

Across the country at Santa Anita male turf runners go 1 1/8 miles in the San Gabriel. It drew 11 runners, with 3-1 shot Jeranimo the most likely winner.

A millionaire and a 10-time winner from 38 starts, Jeranimo warrants support if he sticks to that price, but that seems unlikely. Coming off a fast-closing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and being reunited with jockey Rafael Bejarano, he sticks out.

Slim Shadey is my price-based choice. Although coming off a year in which he hit the board in just one of seven races, he is a horse whose subpar 2013 might be at least partially forgiven.

Last year, he faced some of the better turf horses in the country, such as Wise Dan and Indy Point, and other times he was cooked in speed duels that compromised his finish.

Another taxing duel seems improbable Saturday. Slim Shadey looks like the controlling speed, and jockey Corey Nakatani should be able to coax him into a steady rhythm on the lead.

He’s an appealing prospect, if he starts close to his 5-1 morning line.

Wintergreen
Despite a modest $60,000 purse, the Wintergreen at Turfway has 12 horses in the body of the race and two also-eligibles.

There are a lot of unknown variables for horseplayers to consider. Horses are stretching out in distance; others are stepping up in company, and still others are shifting from dirt to synthetic at Turfway.

My thoughts are to go with a horse who is a proven commodity routing and running on synthetic tracks. That horse is Some Temper.
Of her 12 starts, 11 have come on synthetic surfaces, including all four of her wins. And three of those victories have come routing.
Granted, she has yet to place in a stakes race, and she hasn’t been close in her last three stakes starts.

The Wintergreen looks like a different story. Some Temper has the speed to gain position and hopefully the staying power to outfinish her stretching-out opponents.

Beyond backing Some Temper, I suggest playing against Moon Philly, hoping to keep her out of the exotics. She will attract support off her dirt accomplishments but ran dismally in one prior synthetic start.