Weekend Warrior for Jan. 31: Picks for Sam Davis, Las Virgenes, Endeavour
Santa Anita has a strong card Saturday with three graded stakes – the Grade 1, $300,000 Las Virgenes; the Grade 2, $200,000 Arcadia; and the Grade 2, $200,000 Palos Verdes. In Florida, the stakes focus shifts to Tampa Bay Downs, which has the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis; the Grade 3, $150,000 Endeavour; and the $100,000 Suncoast.
In one other stakes of note, champion 2-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi makes her 3-year-old debut in Oaklawn’s $100,000 Martha Washington.
Sam F. Davis Stakes
Ocean Knight probably will be the favorite despite having raced only once, and he might well be the real deal. He was a most-impressive winner of his debut at Aqueduct last month, drawing away with complete authority and earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure that is the best in this field. And right after that win, Ocean Knight caught the first flight to Florida to join trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s main winter string. I’m not a favorite player in general, but Ocean Knight is not the kind of chalk I can back.
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The field he beat in his first start was not a good one, and he is now up in both class and distance and must overcome an outside post, all at skimpy odds.
Ami’s Flatter is a logical alternative. He was a game second in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes most recently in only his second start and his first outing on dirt. But Ami’s Flatter’s effort might look better on paper that it actually was. If the Mucho Macho Man fractions are to be believed (The second quarter was posted in 21.88 seconds; it just didn’t look like they were going that fast), the final quarter was a sluggish 26.44. That puts Ami’s Flatter’s late gain in a less-flattering light.
I’m going with My Johnny Be Good, whose only outings on dirt in his last two starts were a decided cut above good efforts on Polytrack in his first two starts. Two starts back, My Johnny Be Good was a fine second in an allowance route at Keeneland after a weird trip. He was on the lead early, only to be wrangled back despite the pace remaining very slow. My Johnny Be Good re-bid in the stretch to be a game runner-up to Eagle, who next time out was a terrific third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
My Johnny Be Good returned to action last month and absolutely crushed a Tampa Bay Downs allowance field after showing the speed to contest a sprint pace. He is well suited to the stretch-out in distance Saturday and is backed by an Eoin Harty barn that is having a huge Tampa meet.
Las Virgenes Stakes
Five of the 10 entrants in this race are trained by Jerry Hollendorfer (one of them, Glory, will scratch), two others are trained by Mark Casse, and two more are trained by Bob Baffert. On general principle, it almost makes you want to root for the John Sadler-trained Suva Harbor. With two straight wins since moving into Sadler’s barn, and two seconds before that in her first two starts, Suva Harbor is certainly a nice filly. But she will need a significant Beyer improvement to contend.
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I like one of the Baffert fillies – Callback. Something went awry when she failed as the favorite in her debut three starts back, but she came back to be a decisive winner of a highly productive maiden race at Los Alamitos two back. Last time out, Callback took a decisive step forward with a strong second in the Santa Ynez, finishing gamely despite finding herself farther off the early pace than she had been before. There is no reason to think that Callback won’t stretch out effectively, and blinkers off should help her to relax and assist in that regard.
Endeavour Stakes
Among others, there are two in this race who went for seven figures at the Keeneland sale last November – Hard Not to Like, who sold for $1.5 million, and Rosalind, who went for a cool million. I prefer Rosalind, who will be the better price and has more upside while switching to trainer Chad Brown.
Rosalind’s form last year was compromised by an unsuccessful trip to Royal Ascot. But she does like turf and is a Grade 1-level performer when at her best. I expect Brown to have Rosalind straightened out.