Weekend Warrior for Jan. 3: Picks for Dania Beach, Jerome, San Gabriel

It might be a new year, but for many horseplayers, the goal remains the same as last year: beat the favorite whenever you can. I will attempt to do just that at the three major racing venues of Gulfstream Park, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita, as all will be offering excellent cards on this first Saturday of 2015.

The Grade 3 Dania Beach is one of five stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream in south Florida, while the Grade 3 Jerome is the first graded race of the year in New York. In California, the Grade 2 San Gabriel is the second of back-to-back graded events on the Santa Anita card.

Dania Beach Stakes

Ken Ramsey’s fingerprints are all over this first graded turf stakes of the year for 3-year-olds, with three of his homebreds being among a field of 10 in this 7 1/2-furlong, two-turn race, all of them logical contenders.

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Of the Ramsey trio, Smokem Kitten is the probable favorite following his eye-catching, front-running romp in his career debut Dec. 6, opening day of the championship meet. But can he duplicate that kind of performance with far more early speed in here to challenge him as he rises in class?

Either of the other Ramsey runners, Wayward Kitten or Crown the Kitten, seems capable of upsetting at a better price for Wesley Ward. Wayward Kitten is being reported as a first-time gelding after running creditably at Churchill Downs and then getting a freshening, while Crown the Kitten has a couple of “off brand” tracks (Kentucky Downs and Retama Park) on his past-performance lines that may fuel bettors’ skepticism. I will give Crown the Kitten the best shot.

Overall, the Dania Beach looks like a very competitive race, with horses such as Stormy Wayllen, A Lot, Croninthebarbarian, and Night Prowler also deserving of consideration.

Jerome Stakes

El Kabeir brings the two highest Beyers (93 and 94) to this two-turn race for 3-year-olds at a mile and 70 yards. Moreover, he’s the only graded stakes winner in a field of nine, having led wire-to-wire in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes five weeks ago at Churchill Downs. He’s also the only starter with a graded-stakes placing as the runner-up in the Grade 2 Nashua at Aqueduct in early November.

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Those credentials seem likely to make him a solid favorite here, but he has been assigned the far-outside post, and Calvin Borel probably will have to send him to secure a decent position. Front-running tactics worked in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but that was on the Churchill rail, where nobody is better than Borel; a different set of circumstances here might translate into a different result, assuming the early lead doesn’t come quite so easily this time, with Nasa and maybe a couple of others pushing him through his early paces.

I will be looking for Ostrolenka, a Todd Pletcher-trained New York-bred colt, to run a much better race than he did when laboring home the trailer in the Grade 2 Remsen last out. He was terrific in back-to-back races at Belmont Park this fall, and with Jose Ortiz working out a ground-saving, stalking trip behind the front-runners, he’s eligible to bounce back in this spot.

San Gabriel Stakes

Has Tom’s Tribute tipped to the other side of midnight after being outkicked with no apparent excuse in the Grade 2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar, or will the 5-year-old rebound for yet another winning run in a graded turf stakes in California?

That’s the main question to be answered when Tom’s Tribute goes favored after being assigned the outside post for this 1 1/8-mile turf race. I’m leaning against him, mostly because he’s a vulnerable favorite but also because several others in here have some merit, most notably Big Bane Theory and Finnegans Wake.

Big Bane Theory, the top pick, is more of a miler type, and his so-so running lines in his last two could make him a decent price. I will be looking for Joe Talamo to lull him into a nice rhythm while saving ground, after which they could be kicking home the quickest.