Weekend Warrior for Jan. 25: Picks for Houston Ladies Classic, Champion Energy Services, Santa Monica
Although the race to watch Saturday is the Grade 2 Holy Bull from Gulfstream Park, which drew at least a half-dozen legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders among its 11 entries, the Weekend Warrior has found some other races just as worthy of betting attention. From Texas to California, some intriguing stakes are on the docket.
Houston Ladies Classic
With a purse of $400,000, the Houston Ladies Classic is the co-richest race of the weekend, along with the Holy Bull. With this being just its second running, necessitating that it remain ungraded, it didn’t attract the quality one might expect for such a rich pot. It drew fillies and mares a cut below the very best.
That suits Class Included fine, since a Grade 3 type of horse is precisely what she is. Winner of the Grade 3 Ballerina in 2012 at Hastings, she went winless in her first three starts of 2013 for owner Evelyn Benoit’s Brittlyn Stable, before taking her final two races of last year once sent to trainer Ron Faucheux.
First up was a six-length victory in the Nov. 23 Treasure Chest at Delta Downs, a race that was followed by a 1 3/4-length victory in the Blushing K.D. Stakes on the Fair Grounds grass Dec. 21.
Now in the third start of her current form cycle, Class Included looks poised for yet another top effort, and her tactical speed should leave her well positioned, stalking the leaders under Shaun Bridgmohan.
Forget about betting her at her 6-1 morning line. That line is simply inaccurate.
Expect odds more in the range of 5-2 or 3-1 on Class Included, which would still make her worthy of a bet, as the most likely winner of the race.
Champion Energy Services Stakes
A couple races before the Houston Ladies Classic is the Champion Energy Services Stakes, a five-furlong dash on the Sam Houston grass in which the speedy Sum of the Parts was accurately tabbed as the morning-line favorite.
A gifted sprinter, at his best on turf and synthetic tracks, Sum of the Parts looks tough but chalky.
Provided the comebacking Hogy offers more value at the windows, I prefer him. Four for 7 last year with earnings of more than $339,000, Hogy makes his first start of 2014 and should work out a good stalking trip behind pacesetters Sum of the Parts and Great Mills.
Hogy is effective from five furlongs to a mile on either turf of synthetic, and coming off a bullet work at Oaklawn Park and having won fresh previously for these connections, he looks ready to fire.
He also seems likely to get bet down from a generous 6-1 morning line, probably to 7-2 or 4-1 odds.
This race, along with the Houston Ladies Classic, are two of the races in an all-stakes pick four, a bet with just a 12 percent takeout. That takeout also applies to all other multi-race gimmicks at Sam Houston.
Santa Monica Stakes
With this race contested at seven furlongs on the Santa Anita main track – Teddy’s Promise and Heir Kitty, Grade 1 winners under those precise conditions – are the ones to beat. But they don’t stand out on speed figures, with three others actually coming off races that rated higher in terms of Beyers.
There is value with late-running Lexington Pearl, a former claimer who joins the Pete Miller barn after two fine efforts in long one-turn races at Gulfstream Park. In rallying to finish second most recently in the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper, Lexington Pearl earned a 95 Beyer, the top last-race figure.
It was not a fluke. A start before, she won a second-level allowance by four lengths at Gulfstream with a 90 Beyer, defeating a next-out winner in Giant Cats Eye.
Lexington Pearl adds blinkers, a positive return-on-investment angle for Miller, and with three legitimate speed horses in the lineup, there is ample pace to set up her rally.