Weekend Warrior for Jan. 18: Picks for Strub, Sunshine Millions Sprint, Evening Attire

Mucho Macho Man will make his first start since his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday in the $400,000 Florida Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park, the feature on a card that includes five other Florida Sunshine Millions stakes.

Other races of note Saturday include the Grade 2, $200,000 Strub Stakes at Santa Anita and the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.

Strub Stakes

Govenor Charlie will be making his first start since a dismal showing in the Preakness eight months ago, and will be doing so around two turns. In most cases, I would be very leery of such horses, but not this time. In fact, I like Govenor Charlie.

Bob Baffert trains Govenor Charlie, who looked very good even if he didn’t beat much when he romped in the Sunland Derby prior to the Preakness in only his third career start. According to DRF Formulator trainer statistics, Baffert is 7 for 14 over the last three years with horses coming back off a layoff of 180 days or longer in route races, and 3 for 5 with such horses in stakes. Those are outstanding numbers. And when taken in combination with the Baffert-trained Shakin It Up winning last month’s Grade 1 Malibu off a nine-month absence, there is reason to be confident that Govenor Charlie will return in sharp form.

Moreover, Govenor Charlie projects to sit a great trip. Heir of Storm, whose big win two starts back was aided by a strong speed bias, and whose form before and since looks soft, is the likely pacesetter. Govenor Charlie figures to stalk Heir of Storm from close range through what should be controlled fractions.

The main threats are Hear the Ghost, Shakin It Up, and Zeewat. I liked Hear the Ghost last time out in the Native Diver, and he ran respectably finishing second to Blueskiesnrainbows, who came back to win last week’s San Pasqual, but with only a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. Truth be told, however, Hear the Ghost had every chance in the Native Diver, and I was a little disappointed he didn’t get the job done.

Shakin It Up came from way back in the Malibu, and Zeewat came from even farther back to finish third. But the Malibu was a race that really fell apart late, and my suspicion is both of these colts are at their best as closing sprinters.

Florida Sunshine Millions Sprint

Ribo Bobo, who was re-claimed for a mere $6,250 10 months ago, won 10 of 11 starts last year, including an arrogantly easy score in the Claiming Crown Express most recently. Star Harbour was claimed for $35,000 off a huge win four starts back and has maintained his form since, winning the Sunshine State Stakes two starts back. But both have extreme early speed, and it’s hard envisioning them not compromising each other’s chances here.

Happy My Way should sit a perfect inside stalking trip, and he’s my play. Happy My Way was a most impressive, top last-out Beyer winner over the track in his most recent outing. It is true his victory was at the expense of weaker company, but I’m taking the fact that he accomplished that career-best performance going turf to dirt as evidence that Happy My Way is best now as a main-track sprinter. I like that Happy My Way ran well in fast-paced turf sprints last year after rating early, and I also like how he’s repeating the training pattern that preceded his recent win, with a half-mile turf breeze going in.

Evening Attire Stakes

Long River returned last fall a much-improved performer, and he will take some beating here as he makes a stretch out to two turns he should relish. But Cease is an alternative I find appealing.

Cease was claimed for $100,000 last summer by New York’s winningest trainer, David Jacobson. He was pace and rail-bias compromised in his first start off the claim, but followed with a solid win in his second start for his new connections. A best-ignored outing in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon came after that, but Cease showed he suffered no ill-effects from that venture with a runaway score in fast time last time out going two turns on Aqueduct’s inner track. Cease is facing a tougher bunch Saturday, but he has the back class to stand the raise. And with precipitation in the forecast, Cease only becomes tougher with moisture in the track.