Weekend Warrior for Jan. 17: Picks for Lecomte, Sunshine Millions Distaff, La Canada

There are a couple of tracks vying for the stakes spotlight Saturday, but we will give the nod to Fair Grounds, where the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte for 3-year-olds tops a card that includes four other stakes.

Gulfstream presents its Sunshine Millions program, so that card also is packed with stakes, ostensibly led by the $250,000 Sunshine Millions Classic. The headliner at Santa Anita is the Grade 2, $200,000 La Canada Stakes.

Lecomte Stakes

There are some promising horses in this race. Tiznow R J comes off a 13 1/4-length maiden romp in only his third start and his first attempt around two turns. War Story won both of his starts with complete authority. Savoy Stomp was bettered by nice stakes performers in his last two starts but won his debut in New York nicely and is now first-time Lasix. Another Lemon Drop scored decisively in two of his last three starts, sandwiched between a third to subsequent Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity winner Dortmund. But if Eagle runs back to his third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in his last start, everyone else here is in trouble.

Eagle was beaten less than a length in the Kentucky Jockey Club, finishing behind a talented pair in El Kabeir and Imperia. And the form of that race got a boost when El Kabeir came back to dominate the Jerome Stakes, winning by almost five lengths with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure.

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Eagle’s Kentucky Jockey Club performance was even better than it looks on paper. Eagle was blocked on the rail behind horses from midway through the far turn to the stretch, where he finally was able to angle out for room. By then, Imperia made a strong, unhindered move to get a big jump on Eagle. To his credit, however, Eagle finished strongly and almost completely made up the gap on Imperia.

The only issue I have with Eagle is that he will be the favorite. But instead of sticking with the Warrior tradition of a win play, let’s couple Eagle in exotics with another horse here I’m taken with – Runhappy.

Do yourself a favor and check out the replay of Runhappy’s recent debut victory in a straight maiden race at Turfway Park. You can do so with Formulator past performances, and it is well worth the effort. Runhappy broke slowly and took a bit of time to get his legs under him. But once he did, he produced one of the most impressive displays of rush-up speed seen in a long time. Runhappy went his second quarter-mile, which was partially around the far turn, in an astounding 21.83 seconds and yet continued to draw off through the stretch despite drifting all over the track to score by more than eight lengths and earn an 84 Beyer.

Runhappy is stepping up in both class and distance. But he is by Super Saver, so he should go long, and off what he showed first time out, he could be completely loose early.

Sunshine Millions Distaff

Toasting is a closer, and probably a deep closer in this spot, and that is not the kind of running style one should lean on too often on the main track at Gulfstream. However, while speed horses continue to do well at Gulfstream, that style hasn’t been as overtly favored there lately as it sometimes can be. So, Toasting is my horse here.

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I love the cutback from middle distances to seven furlongs for Toasting because she is really at her best up to a one-turn mile. Evidence of that can be found in her strong score in the Sky Beauty Stakes three starts back. There is plenty of early speed to set up Toasting’s late kick, and she won at the distance over the track last winter, beating a quality opponent in R Free Roll.

La Canada Stakes

Lexie Lou finished second to California Chrome in the Hollywood Derby most recently, and that, coupled with her win over males in the Queen’s Plate last summer, ensures that she will be the favorite here. But no matter how well she might be working on the main track at Santa Anita, Lexie Lou is an unknown in race conditions on dirt. That makes her an unappealing favorite.

Sam’s Sister is a perfectly acceptable alternative. Sam’s Sister made it 2 for 2 on dirt with her upset of the talented Taris in the La Brea last time, and she has the pedigree and connections to stretch out successfully.