Weekend Warrior for Jan. 11: Picks for Hal's Hope, Fort Lauderdale, San Pasqual

Stakes doubleheaders at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita top Saturday’s stakes action. At Gulfstream, the co-features are the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale and the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope. At Santa Anita, the headliners are the Grade 2 San Pasqual and the Grade 3 Sham.

Hal’s Hope Stakes

The last two Hal’s Hope winners, Csaba and Jackson Bend, are entered here and are logical contenders. Csaba, who prevailed in a close four-horse finish in last year’s Hal’s Hope, wasn’t good enough when second in last month’s Harlan’s Holiday but is capable of better as he showed in triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure wins two and three starts back. Jackson Bend, who beat Sangaree by a length in the 2012 Hal’s Hope, has lost his last 10 starts. However, he was an improved second in the Sunshine State Stakes most recently off the cutback to one turn, unquestionably his best game.

This is a wide-open race, and you’re supposed to go looking for better odds than Csaba, Jackson Bend, and Uncaptured, Canada’s Horse of the Year at 2 in 2012, figure to offer.[bc_video_id:313871:]

I’m going with Neck ’n Neck. Neck ’n Neck will be overlooked in the betting after his dull effort last time out in the Harlan’s Holiday that made him 0 for 4 at Gulfstream. That’s okay, because Neck ’n Neck is still good enough to win.

Neck ’n Neck’s distant fourth in the Harlan's Holiday was not good. But I don’t think it had anything to do with him disliking Gulfstream. In fact, Neck ’n Neck’s first three starts at Gulfstream were okay. He finished second in his first Gulfstream start as a 3-year-old in 2012 to the then immensely promising Discreet Dancer, and later that meet, he was in tough in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, yet was not disgraced in either event.

Neck ’n Neck’s poor try in the Harlan's Holiday may have been the result of running on the rail all the way. I suspect he much prefers running outside of horses, a theory supported by a look at his comment lines, which note one wide move after another. With a draw toward the outside Saturday, Neck ’n Neck can get the outside trip he wants.

As for Neck ’n Neck’s prior form, I like how he delivered one of the best performances of his career when he won the 2012 Ack Ack Handicap off the cutback from a route to the kind of one-turn mile he gets Saturday. And though Neck ’n Neck was absent for 11 months after that score, he showed he remains as capable as ever when he finished a sharp third against a tough group in his comeback in the Schaefer Memorial last fall.

Fort Lauderdale Stakes

Nikki’s Sandcastle was cross-entered in the Hal’s Hope, but I expect him to run in this race, and he is my play.

Nikki’s Sandcastle was a much-the-best winner of the Fayette in his last appearance after being checked and steadied along for at least the first half of that race, and I like the Polytrack-to-turf surface switch he would be making here. The last time he made that move, Nikki’s Sandcastle responded with two stakes victories over the Gulfstream turf course he would be racing on Saturday.

Slumber is the best horse in this race, but Summer Front is the horse Nikki’s Sandcastle and the rest have to beat. This 1 1/16-mile distance seems too short for Slumber, and that makes you think he’s prepping for something else. But the distance is perfect for Summer Front, who comes off the best effort of his career, a nose loss in the Citation Handicap.

San Pasqual Stakes

There isn’t a great deal behind Game On Dude in the Southern California handicap division right now, and with Game On Dude passing Saturday, that makes this race a good spot for a relatively fresh face, namely Blingo.

Blingo spent the first part of his career racing primarily on turf and synthetic with only modest success. But he broke through in his last start on dirt at Belmont Park with the best effort of his career, a deserved, if surprising, win in the I’m a Banker Stakes after a troubled start and four-wide trip. There is ample pace here to assist Blingo’s late run, and a repeat of his last would be good enough.