Weekend Warrior for Jan. 10: Picks for Fort Lauderdale, San Pasqual, Marshua's River
The stakes focus Saturday is precisely where one would expect it to be in January – Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has three stakes on its card – the Grade 2, $200,000 Fort Lauderdale; the Grade 3, $150,000 Marshua’s River; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Hal’s Hope, which marks the return of the highly talented Lea. Santa Anita has a stakes doubleheader consisting of the Grade 2, $200,000 San Pasqual and the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham, a route for 3-year-olds with 17 Kentucky Derby points.
Fort Lauderdale Stakes
There is a lot going on in this race. Za Approval, who late last year regained the form that enabled him to be a sharp second to Wise Dan in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Mile, makes his first start for a new barn. Lochte returns to the Gulfstream turf course on which he is a Grade 1 winner. Mshawish won his debut over the course last time and might be poised to reproduce his best European form. One could even toss Mosler into the mix. He won two of his last three and now makes his turf debut for Bill Mott.
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Although any one of these can win, I’m leaning against them for various reasons. With no knock whatsoever on Mark Casse, Za Approval’s new trainer, it’s hard to envision Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons himself doing a better job with this gelding than Christophe Clement did. So, I want to see one from Za Approval first. Lochte loves Gulfstream’s turf, but his current form doesn’t seem quite as good as when he upset the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap last winter and earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure when second in the Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita.
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Mshawish was third against easier company two starts back in the Knickerbocker on yielding ground. And while he did come back to win the El Prado Stakes last month on firm footing, he is facing better Saturday.
Mosler is intriguing because he’s by War Front, and I like War Front’s get on turf. But I just can’t quite bite on Mosler making his turf and stakes debut in a spot like this.
I like Mutin, who won his first and only U.S. start last November at Aqueduct. Mutin earned a 97 Beyer for that score, which already makes him a fit with this group. He earned that Beyer while barely having the chance to show what he can really do. Mutin was buried in traffic from the far turn to midstretch, but after he was finally able to find a tight seam between horses and kick a bit the final sixteenth of a mile, he finished powerfully to overwhelm Sky Blazer, a strong finisher himself.
San Pasqual Stakes
Hoppertunity showed considerable potential during last year’s Kentucky Derby prep season and won the Grade 1 Clark most recently in his second start back from an injury. Hoppertunity will take a lot of beating but will be a short price.
What’s interesting about this race involves a logical alternative to Hoppertunity, my play, Big Cazanova.
Big Cazanova wired the Native Diver Stakes last time out on Del Mar’s now-defunct Polytrack, making him 3 for 3 on that surface. But I think Big Cazanova is also a better dirt horse than most people think. His two ugly dirt loses sandwiched between his Del Mar scores are more attributable to being overmatched in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and going a silly distance in the 14-furlong Las Vegas Marathon than trouble with dirt.
Big Cazanova would absolutely be the lone speed were it not for Appealing Tale. However, Appealing Tale and Big Cazanova are barnmates and share common ownership. With that in mind, I’m hoping Appealing Tale doesn’t compromise a potential pace advantage for the sharper and arguably better Big Cazanova.
Marshua’s River Stakes
Parranda, who makes her first start for Clement, has by far the best class lines here. But she was purchased for $800,000 at Keeneland in November with the goal of winning a race next month in Singapore. Parranda might win even if she’s prepping, but I will pass.
I’m going with Strike Charmer, who impressed in winning the Cardinal Handicap most recently. Strike Charmer really raised her game in 2014, improved even more since getting blinkers three starts ago, and can adapt to any pace scenario.