Weekend Warrior for Feb. 28: Picks for Battaglia, Texas Heritage, Santa Ysabel

Falling between last Saturday’s Fountain of Youth, Risen Star, and the seasonal bow of Main Sequence and next Saturday’s Big Cap, San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and Gotham, this Saturday represents a relative soft spot on the national stakes schedule. The day’s main event is the Grade 2, $200,000 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream, which marks the seasonal debut of Champagne Stakes winner Daredevil.

John Battaglia Memorial

This is the second race in Turfway’s stakes program for 3-year-olds that culminates with next month’s Spiral. The Great War will be heavily favored to do what he did in the first race in this series, the 96Rock Stakes, which he won by a city block in a common gallop at 1-10.

The Great War presents an interesting handicapping question concerning horses stretching out to routes when they might not really be suited for it. The Great War has gone long only once, finishing a creditable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, less than two lengths behind such classy Kentucky Derby aspirants as Carpe Diem and Upstart.

Yet despite that effort, I have doubts that The Great War wants to go long. It is revealing that in the first seven starts of his career in Europe for none other than Aidan O’Brien, The Great War never competed in a race longer than 6 1/2 furlongs. It’s also telling that The Great War, who would be a legitimate fit in a much higher-profile 3-year-old prep program than the one he’s actually in, is trying to stretch out against soft company. The Great War might successfully stretch out Saturday night because he just might be tons better than everyone else. But at a short price, I’m against him.

The Mike Maker-trained trio of Pepper Roani, Task Force Glory, and Firespike will be viewed as potential alternatives. Pepper Roani earned a Beyer Speed Figure with blinkers on last time in a maiden score over the track that puts him in the mix with The Great War. Task Force Glory was third on turf at Gulfstream in his seasonal debut, and Firespike won the OBS Championship most recently in his first start on a synthetic surface. But Firespike hasn’t progressed an inch Beyer-wise, Task Force Glory seemed like the only one who didn’t have big trouble in his last race, and I want validation on Pepper Roani’s vastly improved speed figure.

I’m going with Royal Son. Even though he ran well when second in his first two starts last summer at Saratoga, I’ve been lukewarm to Royal Son. He was fortunate to be put up at Gulfstream two starts back on a questionable disqualification and showed little last time when a distant seventh in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. But he is switching to synthetic with a suitable pedigree and after working on turf in Florida two weeks ago, and he is adding blinkers. The combination of the surface switch and equipment change could elicit significant improvement, and he has the speed to be a factor from the start.

Texas Heritage Stakes

The morning-line favorite, Academy Bay, did win both of his starts last year but over suspect Indiana-breds, and he now returns off a four-month layoff.

A Day in Paradise likely will be the favorite, and if he isn’t, he should be because if he runs back to his last race, he will win easily. A Day in Paradise finished second most recently at Fair Grounds to War Story, who came back to be second in the Lecomte and Risen Star stakes. But more than that, A Day in Paradise did so after finding himself in a speed duel while War Story fell into a perfect stalking trip.

Santa Ysabel Stakes

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Despite the fact that she hasn’t raced in more than seven months and is stretching out from 5 1/2 to 8 1/2 furlongs, Enchanting Lady is the play.

Enchanting Lady is trained by Bob Baffert, who has outstanding numbers with horses in routes off layoffs longer than 180 days. Moreover, Enchanting Lady was almost as fast last June Beyer-wise as anyone in this field is right now.