Weekend Warrior for Feb. 22: Picks for Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Canadian Turf
The Triple Crown prep season takes an intense turn Saturday with big fields contesting the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The Risen Star and Fountain of Youth are the local springboards to the Louisiana Derby and Florida Derby, respectively. There are also three graded stakes on the Fair Grounds undercard, and two other graded stakes at Gulfstream. In addition, Gulfstream has two allowance races of special interest, one a loaded route for 3-year-olds, and the other marking the return of Normandy Invasion.
Risen Star Stakes
There are those who feel that Vicar’s in Trouble might have lost this race at the post position draw. Vicar’s in Trouble drew post 14, and though the scratch of Bond Holder means he will move in one slot, many still think Vicar’s in Trouble can’t help but be compromised by a wide trip.
I suppose that could happen. Unlike a closer who can let everyone else go and then move over to save ground on the first turn, Vicar’s in Trouble has shown that he likes to operate on or close to the early lead. With all the other pace horses in this race breaking to his inside, Vicar’s in Trouble is at risk of being hung wide on the first turn, if, that is, he isn’t hard used early to clear, which is also not ideal.
There are few other one-way speed horses in this race, however. There could be considerable jockey strategy at play with the pace players going to the first turn, and that might translate into Vicar’s in Trouble not really being caught all that wide on the first turn.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
Here’s the overriding question for Vicar’s in Trouble: Is he good enough? He was good against the clock when he won the Lecomte last month by almost seven lengths for his second win from as many starts at the Fair Grounds meet, and his second win from as many starts on dirt. However, the quality of the competition Vicar’s in Trouble faced in the Lecomte is open to question, and those horses might have made him look better than he really is.
Hoppertunity, who has the look of a rapidly improving colt, is my play. Hoppertunity only just won his maiden last time out in his second career start, which came at Santa Anita, but he did so stretching out to two turns and over some opponents who have kept heady company. And while Hoppertunity did get a good trip in his victory, I like how he rated, how he strongly drew clear late and galloped out a mile ahead of everyone else, and the fact that he earned a Beyer Figure that puts him right in the ballpark with Vicar’s in Trouble.
Fountain of Youth Stakes
Post position is also a hot topic going into this race because Top Billing, who was so impressive winning an allowance route most recently, drew post 12 of 13.
The numbers don’t lie, and extreme outside posts in dirt routes at Gulfstream are a disadvantage. However, if Top Billing’s draw means that his odds will be bigger than they otherwise might have been, then I will happily take him, because I think he can beat his post, anyway.
Top Billing is a deep closer, so he will be looking to drop back and move nearer the inside in the run to the first turn behind what projects to be a strong pace. I think it is also worth noting that not only did Top Billing win his last with a wide move on the far turn, the 1-2-3 finishers in the Holy Bull later that day also all had wide trips. These kind of wide trips were rarely successful on Gulfstream’s main track in the past, but they’ve been successful with a little greater frequency this year.
Canadian Turf Stakes
I liked Guys Reward last time out in the Tampa Bay Stakes, and he delivered at almost 15-1. He won’t be that high a price this time, but I like him to win right back.
Guys Reward’s good late kick is well suited to a race with considerable pace. And while Guys Reward’s record on Gulfstream turf of 0-1-4 from 10 starts might cause some to think twice, he ran a series of good races over the course in early 2011 before he became the solid performer he is now.
