Weekend Warrior for Feb. 21: Picks for Canadian Turf, Davona Dale, Fair Grounds Handicap

It says a lot when an Eclipse Award-winning older male and male turf horse is overshadowed in his seasonal debut, but that is the case Saturday. Main Sequence’s return in the Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream Park, big as it is, plays second fiddle to two Grade 2, $400,000 Kentucky Derby preps – the Fountain of Youth, which tops the stakes-filled card at Gulfstream, and the Risen Star, which heads a stakes-packed program at Fair Grounds.

Canadian Turf Stakes

I understand it’s about economics, but I’m still surprised that Gulfstream starts as many as 14 horses in one-mile turf races. There is a very short run to the first turn in these races, and outside posts are an enormous disadvantage. Pity poor Ring Weekend in this spot. Ring Weekend turned in some terrific stakes performances last year once he focused on turf racing, but he will have to be the second coming of Secretariat to overcome the No. 14 hole.

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Trips obviously will be key in a big field like this, and I like Grand Tito because he projects to sit the sweetest of trips. Grand Tito breaks from post 2. The horse to his inside, Excaper, will go early because that’s what he does. So will the horse breaking right outside of him, Mr. Online, off the stretch-out from turf sprints. With the first turn coming up quickly, Grand Tito will fall into a perfect forwardly placed, ground-saving trip.

Grand Tito turned in the two best performances of his career in his last two starts since switching barns. He narrowly missed two back in the Fort Lauderdale to Mshawish. Yes, I know Mshawish went wide into the stretch and Grand Tito came through on his inside, but it was still a sharp effort. And Grand Tito was a game fifth last time in the Gulfstream Park Turf after having the lead in midstretch. That race was at nine furlongs, longer than Grand Tito wants to go. The cutback to a mile here suits him well.

Davona Dale Stakes

Cavorting and Puca have the potential to be big-time 3-year-old fillies this year, and they make their seasonal debuts here. After she won the Adirondack last summer, Cavorting was arguably the top juvenile filly in the nation. Puca was beaten only three lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after some stretch trouble, although her trouble was due to her not being quick enough to make a hole between horses that closed on her. I have nothing against either of these. I just prefer Eskenformoney.

Eskenformoney has been a much more effective filly since switching to dirt three starts ago and comes into this off two decisive scores at the distance over the track. Eskenformoney’s most recent win was her best yet and featured a finish that was strong in comparison to the crew in this race who come out of the Forward Gal, a race that really fell apart late.

Fair Grounds Handicap

If Skyring is the horse to beat here, and he might be off his close fifth to the vastly improved Finnegans Wake, then I can certainly go with a new face like Glenard.

Glenard’s English form isn’t what attracted me, because it is only so-so. What makes him appealing here is a recent string of stellar turf workouts at Palm Meadows and eye-catching numbers by trainer Graham Motion in all the pertinent categories. The sense is that Glenard will outperform his European form in a race where he doesn’t have to be special to win.

As for the big Triple Crown preps, in the Risen Star, I’m taking a skeptical view of the group coming out of the Lecomte and especially want to see Lecomte winner International Star run like that again before I buy into him. Imperia, who will be making his first start since a near miss in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in his dirt debut, is the logical alternative.

In the Fountain of Youth, Upstart was miles the best in the Holy Bull, but I will give Holy Bull runner-up Frosted one more chance against him. Frosted adds blinkers, and I expect him to be more involved early, which might be just what he needs.