Weekend Warrior for Feb. 15: Picks for Santa Maria, King Cotton, The Very One

There is something for everyone on Saturday’s stakes schedule. Laurel Park offers one of its two traditional Presidents Day weekend sprint stakes in the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie Handicap for fillies and mares. Santa Anita has a route for older females with the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. Gulfstream offers two extended distance turf stakes, the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida, and the Grade 3 The Very One. And there is the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby for 3-year-olds at Golden Gate Fields.

Santa Maria Stakes

If Fiftyshadesofhay was the Fiftyshadesofhay we saw at times last season, she would be hard to beat. Last year, with the addition of blinkers, she produced a furious late rush to get up and win the Black-Eyed Susan, and followed with a dominating score in the Iowa Oaks. And her subsequent second in the Grade 1 Alabama, in which she was very game chasing the formidable Princess of Sylmar, might have been her best performance of all.

But I’m not sure Fiftyshadesofhay is operating at that level right now. She was the beaten favorite at even money, finishing second two starts back in the Bayakoa in an okay effort. Fiftyshadesofhay was coming off a freshening, and was up against a runaway, wire-to-wire winner and was the sort of outing Fiftyshadesofhay figured to build on. Instead, she took a step backward last time in the La Canada. Circumstances were ideal for Fiftyshadesofhay to make an effective late run chasing a hot pace, but she never really did, finishing a clunk-along fourth.

Fiftyshadesofhay is trained by Bob Baffert, but I like his other starter here, Ondine. Ondine finished third in the La Canada, beaten only a half-length, and finishing a half-length ahead of Fiftyshadesofhay.

Ondine pressed, and then dueled on that hot La Canada pace with Broken Sword, the 6-5 favorite, and the romping winner of the Bayakoa in her prior start. Despite doing the dirty work, Ondine raced Broken Sword into defeat nearing the stretch, took command in the stretch, and was only caught late by two opponents who had much better setups.

I do have a concern about Ondine regressing off the La Canada because it had to be a draining effort, and it came off a four-month layoff. However, the pace situation Saturday is much better for her. Ondine looks like the controlling speed.

King Cotton Stakes

This race was a victim of an Oaklawn cancellation last week, but was rescheduled for Saturday. All seven who were entered last week are back, along with three new faces. The three additional betting interests might help boost the price of the horse I prefer, Picko’s Pride.

Picko’s Pride has not raced in more than seven months, and usually that would be an issue for me. But not this time. Almost a year ago, Picko’s Pride returned from a similar layoff at Oaklawn and scored decisively, earning what was then a career-best Beyer Figure. Two starts later, he was a fine second in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, beaten less than a length by Justin Phillip, who three starts later won the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt with a 109 Beyer. Picko’s Pride proved his big Count Fleet performance was no fluke when he came back with a strong score in the Hockessin at Delaware in his most recent appearance.

The Very One Stakes

Dowager winner Preferential, and Aigue Marine, a big winner at the distance over the course at Gulfstream last winter, are logical win candidates. But if Anjaz runs like she did when second in the Sheepshead Bay and Waya Stakes last year in New York, she will get the money.

Anjaz broke about three lengths slow in the Sheepshead Bay, yet was beaten only a length by Tannery, who later won the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor and finished second in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. In the Waya, Anjaz was buried on the rail from the top of the stretch to midstretch, losing all her momentum, but finished fast once clear.