Weekend Warrior for Feb. 14: Picks for Barbara Fritchie, Essex, Santa Maria
Laurel Park has the richest race in the country Saturday in the Grade 2, $300,000 Barbara Fritchie Handicap, and to make that track’s card even more interesting, there also is a pair of $100,000 events – the John B. Campbell and the Maryland Racing Media.
Barbara Fritchie Handicap
Even the most hardened horseplayer will follow a horse or two over a period of time, and when you do, one of the most difficult things to decide is when to end the relationship. I liked, picked, and bet on Toasting last time out in the Sunshine Millions Distaff at Gulfstream. She lost, but I don’t think I’m at the cut-bait stage with her yet. So, I’m taking her right back here.
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I liked Toasting in the Sunshine Millions because she was cutting back off two outings at middle distances to seven furlongs, the same distance as the Fritchie. I like those specific distance cutbacks in general and for Toasting in particular. At this stage of her career, Toasting is at her best going seven furlongs to a one-turn mile, as evidenced by two solid performances last summer – a gaining second in the Seaway Stakes to Leigh Court, who came back to be a most impressive winner of the TCA Stakes in her next start, and then a going-away score in the Sky Beauty Stakes.
Admittedly, I was a bit concerned about falling for a deep closer like Toasting going one turn at Gulfstream. And it didn’t help that Toasting was steadied on the rail nearing the far turn in the Sunshine Millions, which really put her out of contact with the front-runners, and she encountered traffic in upper stretch. But Toasting finished willingly to be fourth, and now she goes on a track that might be more kind to her running style.
Sam’s Sister comes into the Fritchie off two graded stakes scores at this distance at Santa Anita, including the Grade 1 La Brea, and is 3 for 3 on dirt. But I’m leaning against her. It’s fair to question whom Sam’s Sister beat out West – Taris certainly didn’t run anything like she did in winning the Raven Run when second in the La Brea – and her Beyer Speed Figures aren’t as good as several others here.
Princess Violet is dangerous off the form she displayed in New York last fall. However, she drew poorly on the rail, as she now might have to be used early to avoid getting shuffled back.
Essex Handicap
I liked Ride On Curlin for second to California Chrome in last year’s Preakness off the absurd trip he was given when a willing seventh in the Kentucky Derby, and he indeed finished a terrific second. And it was nice to see him pull out a narrow victory in his recent comeback despite going a distance much shorter than what he prefers. But Ride On Curlin will offer zero betting value in this feature at Oaklawn, and even if it’s logical for him to improve while stretching out the second time back, he must do so or he won’t win.
I Got It All is unproven compared with some others here, but he’s worth a shot because he’s poised to get a perfect trip at what should be a square price. I Got It All was unable to catch the loose-on-the-lead Joy Boy when second in a prep for this most recently. But I envision Joy Boy and Rocket Time hooking up early this time and I Got It All falling into a more favorable stalking trip off a contested pace.
Santa Maria Stakes
Almost everywhere you look in this race, you see horses who want the early lead, including a couple of sprinters who are suspect off the stretch-out. This should really help closers Warren’s Veneda and Thegirlinthatsong, who come into this off career-best victories in the Paseana and La Canada, respectively, at the distance and over the track.
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I prefer Warren’s Veneda. She is the more effective closer of the two and won’t become flustered if she should find herself 10 lengths off the lead turning into the backstretch. I also favor Warren’s Veneda’s draw more toward the outside. That doesn’t ensure a clear outside trip but gives her a better shot for one.