Weekend Warrior for Feb. 1: Picks for Tampa Bay, Arcadia, Hutcheson

Tracks across the country Saturday are doubling up, and in some cases going further than that, on their stakes offerings. At Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Las Virgenes is supported by the Grade 2 Arcadia. At Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Hutcheson is backed up by the Gulfstream Turf Sprint. Tampa Bay Downs has three stakes on its card – the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay, and the Suncoast. And Aqueduct offers four stakes – the Grade 3 Withers, the Grade 3 Toboggan, the Busher, and the Correction.

Tampa Bay Stakes

Salto and Seal Cove appear to be the marquee horses here. Salto has for a while looked like a good horse waiting to happen, and his two most recent outings after an eight-month absence were good. He won a classified allowance race at Gulfstream in October, and followed with a near miss in the El Prado Stakes there late last year to a next-out winner. As for Seal Cove, he was fortunate to prevail at Saratoga in his last appearance as runner-up Turallure was about two days the best. But that was still a strong overnight race, and the fact that it occurred more than six months ago should not be an obstacle for Seal Cove, who won off a 12-month layoff in the past.

But I like Guys Reward. Guys Reward, like Salto, made his last start in the El Prado, and was beaten almost 14 lengths. However, I’m going to throw that race out. The El Prado was run on a deep, yielding course, which Guys Reward has had trouble with before, but one that Salto was likely at home over given his success on soft footing in France early in his career.

Guys Reward’s effort two starts back in a tough overnight race at Churchill off an 11-month absence was a good one, though. Guys Reward’s late kick was compromised by a moderate, if not slow pace. But he still tried hard, and wound up splitting a five-horse field that saw three come back to win their next starts. Winner Major Marvel followed with a win in the Claiming Crown Emerald, runner-up Cyber Secret came back to score in Turfway’s Prairie Bayou with a 103 Beyer Figure, and fourth-place finisher Regally Ready won an overnight race at Santa Anita in his next start with a 100 Beyer.

Most importantly, however, Guys Reward’s comeback last fall demonstrated that he is still much the same horse who ran so well winning three straight in the middle of the 2012 season, including the Grade 2 Firecracker.

Arcadia Stakes

Speaking of layoffs, Suggestive Boy will be making his first start in this spot since he won the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile 11 months ago. But Suggestive Boy finished second in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile in his U. S. debut off an 8 1/2-month layoff, and he romped in this race last year off a three-month break. I would be surprised if Suggestive Boy wasn’t a handful Saturday. But as formidable as I expect him to be, I have to give one more shot to No Jet Lag.

I actually thought No Jet Lag had a very good chance to get a significant piece of the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall. I liked his win from far off the pace in his U.S. debut at Del Mar, and I really liked his closing kick when he upset the City of Hope Mile. But I was disappointed to see No Jet Lag as close to the fast early BC Mile pace as he was, and really surprised to see him contest the pace last time out in the Sir Beaufort. I’m not at all sure that No Jet Lag wants to run that way. He is far more effective as a one-run closer, and with ample pace in this race, he can successfully return to that approach.

Hutcheson Stakes

Pablo Del Monte finished fourth as the favorite in the Gulfstream Park Derby last time out, but he merits a chance Saturday to make amends.

Pablo Del Monte was taken back in the early stages of the Gulfstream Derby, which resulted in him getting shuffled farther back than he probably should have been, and forced him into a four-wide trip on the far turn. Pablo Del Monte showed good speed winning his first two starts, and he should be more aggressively placed early this time off the rider switch.