Weekend Warrior for Dec. 7: Picks for Hollywood Starlet, Claiming Crown Rapid Transit and Emerald

There is a deep national stakes schedule on Saturday, but the most important races of the day can be found at Betfair Hollywood Park, where the Grade 1, $500,000 Hollywood Starlet is supported by the Grade 2, $150,000 Bayakoa Stakes. There is also a Grade 3 tripleheader at Calder consisting of the Fred Hooper, My Charmer, and Tropical Turf handicaps, each worth $100,000. And Saturday is Claiming Crown Day at Gulfstream, topped by the $200,000 Jewel.

Hollywood Starlet

Three of the eight entered – Rosalind, Untapable, and Concave – started in last month’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. But while it’s easy to think at first blush that this trio would hold a class edge, I’m not so sure. Rosalind did by far the best of these in the Breeders’ Cup. She came from last of 10 to be a gaining third, beaten only a half-length, and yet there are some things to consider. For one, Rosalind’s late run was nicely set up by a fast early pace, and her gaining finish might have been made to appear better than it actually was with the final five-sixteenths of a mile run in a slow 33.72 seconds. Still, Rosalind can certainly win Saturday. She was second in the Alcibiades and third in the Pocahontas prior to the Juvenile Fillies, and has not run a bad race yet.[bc_video_id:311663:]

Untapable and Concave did not perform well in the Breeders’ Cup, both virtually eased before crossing the line a distant eighth and ninth, respectively. While it is true both were affected by the fatal breakdown of Secret Compass nearing the far turn, it is important to note that both were retreating before that breakdown occurred.

As a group, this year’s 2-year-old filly division has not been a strong one. Concave ran back after the Breeders’ Cup in the Delta Downs Princess and could do no better than finish a soundly beaten third without apparent excuse. And last week, the maiden Got Lucky almost (and perhaps should have) won the Demoiselle. There doesn’t seem to be firm class distinctions with this group yet, so Rosalind’s close Breeders’ Cup finish isn’t quite as imposing as it would be in a different context.

With that in mind, I like Taste Like Candy. Taste Like Candy only just won her racing debut, and wasn’t even enthusiastically bet, either. But she won the right way, drawing off late to dominate, earning a field-best Beyer Figure of 85, and coming from slightly off the pace at a time when speed on the main track at Santa Anita was becoming tough to beat. And given her pedigree, the stretch out to a route here should only be to Taste Like Candy’s liking.

Claiming Crown Rapid Transit

Grande Shores and Ghost Is Clear are dropping out of stakes and are logical win threats. But this seven-furlong event drew a couple of five-furlong stretch-out horses, and things might get a little too hot up front. This is a good spot for a horse cutting back in distance, and I’m going with Goodtimehadbyall, who has routed recently, but has been effective in extended one-turn races in the past.

Goodtimehadbyall is also appealing because his recent form is clouded, which should help his price. You can throw out his last two as he broke five to six lengths slow most recently, and ran on turf two back, which is not his surface. But Goodtimehadbyall ran well and comparatively fast winning three and four starts back in his first two starts off the claim by a high percentage barn, beating next-out winners both times.

Claiming Crown Emerald

Major Marvel and Plainview look like the two main players here, and I prefer Plainview. Major Marvel has won six straight and eight of his last nine. But when he won last time, Major Marvel beat a runner-up in Cyber Secret who is not a turf horse, and a third finisher in Guys Reward who was making his first start in more than 11 months. And when he won two back, Major Marvel beat a horse who was forced to work hard to win his next start at 1-5.

Plainview, on the other hand, has been very competitive with better overnight and Grade 3-level stakes horses in New York recently. He is also the speed of this field, and I suspect he will like getting back on the firmer footing he figures to get Saturday.