Weekend Warrior for Dec. 6: Picks for Claiming Crown Jewel, Rapid Transit, Inaugural

Los Alamitos Race Course hosts Saturday’s only graded stakes race, the Grade 2, $200,000 Bayakoa, but Gulfstream Park’s championship meet opens Saturday with eight Claiming Crown events, topped by the $200,000 Jewel.

Claiming Crown Jewel

We won’t have a good handle on how the main track at Gulfstream is playing until racing actually resumes there Saturday. But we already know that in 1 1/8-mile main-track races like this one, the short run to the first turn puts horses breaking from outside posts at a significant disadvantage. For those horses, losing ground on the first turn is extremely difficult to avoid.

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Interestingly, much of the strength in this race drew to the outside. Viramundo, idle since March but third in races won by the top stakes horses Lea and Revolutionary at Gulfstream last winter, breaks from post 10. Cease, a sharp if surprising second to the promising Transparent before finishing fifth in the Bold Ruler Handicap most recently, goes from post 11. Page McKenney, the horse to beat off an excellent campaign this year that has seen him finish third or better in his last 10 starts, winning six of them, is marooned in post 12. And complicating the situation for these three are two stretch-out horses with positional speed breaking from posts 13 and 14.

There are going to be some tough trips here.

It’s always a good idea to look inside in nine-furlong dirt races at Gulfstream, and I’m going all the way to the rail and taking Cerro.

Cerro scored decisively in his last three starts at Laurel, the last two for his present connections, and earned Beyer Speed Figures that put him in the mix with this group. I’m not thrilled that Cerro beat only five, three, and five opponents in those victories, but he has other attributes that encourage me to overlook that potential weakness.

For one, Cerro is the controlling inside speed. And depending on what happens to those two potential pace players breaking from the extreme outside, Cerro also might find himself loose in front by the first turn. A horse in raging form and in control of the pace makes for a dangerous combination.

Also, Cerro was highly thought of early in his career. As an early 3-year-old, Cerro won a split division of a nine-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream in a faster time than Orb, who won the other division and went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Cerro later finished a close fourth in the Lexington Stakes, won the Canonero II Stakes, and finished third in two other stakes at Delaware Park. One can do worse riding a horse with back class who has gotten good again.

Inaugural Stakes

This is one of two stakes Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, and it’s a bit of an odd one. Outside of Supreme Justice, who has won three times, twice over Indiana-breds, this is essentially an entry-level allowance event. Oddly, the two with the best Beyers are the two maidens in the field – Catalina Red and Got Winged.

Catalina Red’s 80 Beyer for his second at Gulfstream Park West last time out is narrowly tops in this field, but I’m a little suspicious of it since the winner of that maiden race did not validate the number in his next start.

I’m going with Got Winged, who hit the board in two New York-bred maiden races. Got Winged earned a 79 Beyer two starts back when a narrowly beaten second to Regal Minister, who substantiated that number when he came back to win the Notebook Stakes. Got Winged earned a 78 Beyer most recently when third behind Saint Joseph, a well-regarded Chad Brown trainee, after contesting the pace, which probably isn’t his best style.

Claiming Crown Rapid Transit

Goodtimehadbyall blew past his field to win this race last year, and he’s a good play to repeat considering that his last line is dirtied up after racing against the grain of a rail runner’s track.

In his win in this race last year and two subsequent solid efforts going seven furlongs, all came off the same turnback from a middle distance that Goodtimehadbyall is making Saturday.