Weekend Warrior for Dec. 27: Picks for La Prevoyante, Pasco, and Midnight Lute

There’s always the next race somewhere, but in regard to graded stakes for 2014, Saturday represents the end of the road.

A terrific slate of races on opposite coasts is anchored by a trio of Grade 3 events at Gulfstream Park as well as three stakes at Santa Anita, two of them also carrying Grade 3 rankings. Tampa Bay Downs has a couple of nice ungraded stakes for 2-year-olds.

For horseplayers who either didn’t go broke by shopping for Christmas presents or who got a little something extra in their stocking, Saturday should be a good time to enjoy the final few graded stakes before we roll into 2015.

La Prevoyante Handicap

The closer you look, the more you realize Irish Mission probably will be a clear-cut favorite in what is otherwise an extremely well-matched renewal of this 1 1/2-mile turf race. She is very consistent and comes out of back-to-back Grade 1 races after having won the Grade 3 Glens Falls at the end of the Saratoga meet; moreover, she has fan favorites John Velazquez and Christophe Clement on her side.

Irish Mission might be the safest play, but there seems to be room here for greater imagination. Cay Dancer, a 3-year-old with the kind of European form that is difficult for American fans to evaluate, makes her first stateside start for Chad Brown and just might come out running. She figures to be on her toes when getting Lasix for the first time following a four-plus-month layoff, and assuming she’s fit enough, she is eligible to pull a mild surprise. Telling toteboard action (6-1 or under) might be a clue.

If you’re looking to spread liberally, a number of others are worthy of consideration, including Tabreed, Clearbrook, and Premium.

Pasco Stakes

Trainer Gustavo Delgado suddenly surfaced from obscurity to become a force among horsemen on the Miami circuit with 43 wins heading into the final week of 2014, and he’s going out of his way to send a colt named Big Family to Tampa for the seven-furlong Pasco.

As the outside horse in the field of nine 2-year-olds, Big Family might be able to give Edgar Prado a tactical advantage, loading last and likely encountering few or no encumbrances for the long run down the backside. Big Family, a Kentucky-bred by Any Given Saturday, was an easy winner over light competition in his lone start, so it will be very interesting to see how much improvement is forthcoming as he steps up in class. He’ll probably be lower than his 6-1 morning-line odds, but something in the vicinity would seem acceptable.

Of the locals, Catalina Red need only to repeat his effort in the Inaugural Stakes three weeks ago to be a major player right back for Chad Stewart.

Midnight Lute Stakes

On paper, yes, Secret Circle looks every part of an odds-on favorite. He’s a Breeders’ Cup winner; he churns out triple-digit Beyers with remarkable consistency; he’s finally on an uninterrupted schedule; and, he pretty much runs his race every time. And if anybody deserves to win the first running of a race called the Midnight Lute, well, it’s the horse’s Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert.

There’s quite a bit of speed in against Secret Circle in this 6 1/2-furlong race, and that can’t hurt his chances. Exiting the longer Cigar Mile, he figures to be lagging back perhaps a bit farther than usual, especially with Distinctiv Passion and an off-the-shelf Appealing Tale likely firing out of the gate.

But to play devil’s advocate, isn’t it okay to play against Secret Circle? He is on a four-race losing streak; he might not be as sharp on the turn-back; and who wants $3.40 anyway?

Let’s give a chance to Seeking the Sherif, who is 6 for 8 on the Santa Anita main track and ran respectably after drawing the dreaded one-hole in the BC Sprint eight weeks ago.