Weekend Warrior for Dec. 20: Picks for Tropical Park Derby, Tropical Park Oaks, Letellier Memorial

NEW YORK – The big race of the day Saturday obviously is the Grade 1, $500,000 Los Alamitos Futurity. Unfortunately, it drew a field of only five. Small fields also are the case in the two $50,000 stakes at Fair Grounds, the Sugar Bowl and Letellier Memorial, which drew fields of five and six, respectively. The opposite is true, however, in the two $75,000 stakes at Gulfstream, where both the Tropical Park Derby and the Tropical Park Oaks drew 16 entrants.

Tropical Park Derby

No one is going to be heavily bet in this race, but because there is a lot of early speed and the potential for a compromising pace, bettors might gravitate more toward closers such as Daddy’s Kid, Cabo Cat, and Wallyanna.

Wallyanna would be a huge threat if he were able to run back to his upset over Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Bobby’s Kitten in the Hall of Fame Stakes last summer at Saratoga, but that’s a big “if.” Wallyanna’s last three performances were lacking. He is adding blinkers Saturday, but with each passing start, Wallyanna’s Hall of Fame win is looking more like a fluke.

Cabo Cat’s recent form is clouded by two outings at a nine-furlong distance that is too far for him and a poor pace setup most recently. Cabo Cat gets the sort of favorable pace setup here that he had when he won the Manila Stakes five starts back. But I suspect he is more of a one-turn horse at heart than a true two-turn performer.

I gave a long look at Daddy’s Kid, and I think he’s dangerous. His narrowly beaten second to the talented Ring Weekend in the Hill Prince two back might have been a surprise, but he was best that day considering he was four wide around both turns and Ring Weekend saved ground. But I wound up siding against Daddy’s Kid because the Hill Prince, by far the best race of his life, was run on the kind of very soft ground he will not see Saturday. Moreover, Daddy’s Kid did not run back to his Hill Prince when a disappointing third last time out against modest company.

I’m going with Other Cheek. At first glance, Other Cheek looks like he might be yet another who will be part of the pace scenario, but I think there’s more to him.

All of Other Cheek’s races are good. But his second last time out in the Commonwealth Turf to Heart to Heart, who was posting his third straight front-running stakes score, was Other Cheek’s best effort yet. Other Cheek rated kindly off Heart to Heart that day, and though he couldn’t keep step with that red-hot opponent in the stretch, Other Cheek did continue on determinedly to hold second. Other Cheek drew perfectly here in post 2, and the switch to Julien Leparoux suggests a more relaxed early approach. Off what he did in the Commonwealth, I think Other Cheek will be amenable to rating and can capitalize by getting first run on the deeper closers.

Tropical Park Oaks

Unlike the Tropical Park Derby, there isn’t a lot of serious speed in this race. That will help Party Now, an impressive front-running winner at Aqueduct last month off a six-month layoff. But I can’t resist Sandiva.

Truth be told, Sandiva’s U.S. career has been a disappointment so far when you consider she beat Euro Charline when she won a Group 3 at Newmarket in her first start this year. Of course, Euro Charline won a strong renewal of the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes in August. However, Sandiva showed real signs of life when fifth in the Mrs. Revere Stakes most recently. She had traffic trouble from late on the backstretch home but still was going well at the finish. Sandiva has worked well since, and while post 14 is no bargain, it’s not a deal-breaker as she is a drop-back closer.

Letellier Memorial

With limited options, I’ll take True to You to beat the undefeated Promise Me Silver here.

True to You got her first opportunity in a dirt sprint like this race last time out at Indiana Grand, and she scored with complete authority, earning a Beyer Speed Figure that puts her right in the mix. True to You sports a couple recent bullet works, and I like her outside position because it allows her to see how the pace inside of her develops.