Weekend Warrior for Dec. 14: Picks for Native Diver, CashCall Futurity, Kenny Noe Jr. Handicap

The last three graded stakes in the history of Betfair Hollywood Park will be run on Saturday, and it is only fitting that they are terrific races. The main event is the Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity, supported by the Grade 2, $250,000 Hollywood Turf Cup, and the Grade 3, $150,000 Native Diver Handicap. The only other graded race Saturday is the Grade 3, $100,000 Sugar Swirl Stakes at Gulfstream Park.[bc_video_id:312093:]

Native Diver Handicap

This is a fascinating race, and no horse in here is more intriguing than Setsuko, who will be making his first start since finishing second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap 21 months ago. Setsuko has back performances that lay over this field, including that second in last year’s Big Cap, and his nose loss to Game On Dude in the 2011 Big Cap. And given his purposeful workout line that shows two one-mile works, a seven-furlong move, and two five-furlong works in just the last month, I would be surprised if Setsuko is a short horse despite the long absence. But I will still stand against Setsuko because even at his best, he has always seemed a horse who prefers finishing second to winning, as his career mark of two wins and seven second-place finishes suggests.

Soi Phet and Drill are interesting because they both performed creditably when fourth and third, respectively, in the Big Bear Stakes last time out while going against the grain of a speed-biased track. Drill is an unknown commodity going this nine-furlong distance, but Soi Phet would not be a surprise to me if he won.

But Hear the Ghost is the horse I like best here. Hear the Ghost recently returned from an eight-month absence with a rail-skimming second in a sprint that at face value was only okay. But Hear the Ghost caught the eye with a strong gallop out past the finish, and it is very interesting that he worked six furlongs only nine days after that comeback, followed by a five-furlong, a six-furlong, and another five-furlong workout. That tells me his screws have been tightened for this spot.

There are also other reasons to expect improvement from Hear the Ghost on Saturday. He’s stretching back out to two turns, and in his only previous route attempt, he won the San Felipe, beating the highly regarded Flashback and the multiple Grade 1 winner Goldencents. And being a late 3-year-old who has started only four times, Hear the Ghost has more upside than anyone else in this race.

If his price is big enough, I think Blueskiesnrainbows is one to throw in here, too. Yes, Blueskiesnrainbows finished second last time in a weak Breeders’ Cup Marathon that completely fell apart late. But he was always close to what was a strong pace for the distance, so his effort was sneaky good.

CashCall Futurity

Shared Belief will be tough to beat, as he was most impressive winning the Hollywood Prevue last time out, earning a field-best Beyer of 99. But Shared Belief will be routing for the first time, and we saw with Taste Like Candy in last week’s Hollywood Starlet that a field-best Beyer earned sprinting does not automatically translate to two-turn success.

I picked Tap It Rich in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and I’m going back to him here. Tap It Rich drifted six wide on the first turn and was four wide on the far turn in the Juvenile, and I thought he ran better finishing fifth than Bond Holder, who is also in this race, did finishing fourth. Tap It Rich should improve with experience, and with the new bit he’s been working with.

Kenny Noe Jr. Handicap

Black Diamond Cat is scary given the raging form he’s in right now, but I’m giving Fort Loudon one more chance here.

Even if he was coming off a five-month layoff and was in with much, much tougher company, Fort Loudon did not run well when fifth of six in last week’s Sunshine State Stakes. But there isn’t a tremendous amount of pace in this race. If Fort Loudon can show the kind of early foot he did when a very good fourth in the Grade 1 Carter last April, or when he capitalized on a rail bias and won the Gulfstream Sprint Championship last February, he can be the controlling speed, and take this field.