Weekend Warrior for Dec. 13: Picks for El Prado, South Beach, Starlet

The stakes pickings are fairly slim this weekend, but for someone needing to make a hit for Christmas, what does that matter? The fields are big and deep in several stakes around the country, and as savvy horseplayers know, all it takes is one nice lick to earn the equivalent of a free shopping spree at Toys “R” Us.

The twin turf stakes at Gulfstream Park, the El Prado and South Beach, both harbor all kinds of possibilities, while the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Alamitos offers a chance to bet against Take Charge Brandi and D. Wayne Lukas, who go to the well perhaps a time too often.

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El Prado Stakes

There’s ample pace in here to set things up for a closer such as Mshawish, who could be a slight favorite despite never having (officially) won on this continent. Asset Inflation obviously has early quicks, while the 3-year-old Breitling Flyer owns run-off speed, and Fredericksburg probably will show more foot than usual while coming off a layoff and from an outside post.

Down along the rail, meanwhile, will sit the classy gray Excaper, who also is dangerously speedy but must avoid getting caught up in something ruinous. His best races – particularly his Grade 2 victory back home in Canada in late May – surely seems good enough here, but the strategy Joel Rosario employs will be paramount.

Mshawish (a mere $10,000 yearling buy) will be looking to capitalize on the fast pace. He shortens back slightly in distance while returning well prepped by Todd Pletcher, just as another closer, Bad Debt, will be looking to add to his field-high ($818,930) bankroll.

Questions surround Asset Inflation (just how good has he gotten for Mike Maker?), Midnight Cello (wouldn’t he prefer dirt?), and Howe Great (ready right away off the bench?).

South Beach Stakes

Most of the speed is drawn to the outside in the form of longshots She’s Spooky, Skylander Girl, and Why Katherine, which could help set the table for one of the inside horses who can wait out a good trip from just behind them.

That inside contingent includes Kitty Wine, Sassy Kitten, and, most notably, Baffle Me, who won this race last year as an even-money favorite before going awry. Mark Hennig sent her back to Gulfstream after a disappointing run in the Grade 3 Athenia, and now with four local works under her belt, she’s eligible to revert to good form, especially given a crafty inside trip under Joe Bravo. She’s the pick.

Two of the likely favorites, Marbre Rose and Tokyo Time, could prove tough. Marbre Rose, a 3-year-old facing older, is something of an unknown quantity, having just gone through her first allowance condition, but she does have the Christophe Clement factor in her favor.

Tokyo Time has shown versatility but most likely will be asked by Javier Castellano to do her running from the back in this spot.

Starlet Stakes

Didn’t Take Charge Brandi wrap up a divisional Eclipse Award by winning at Delta Downs last month? Or is it really necessary for her to further validate her Breeders’ Cup upset by winning again to nudge past Lady Eli for the honor?

Lukas evidently wants to leave nothing to chance, so he’s going out of his way yet again with Take Charge Brandi – but this strategy might backfire. Yes, the filly is in peak form, and she holds a perceived class edge over her six opponents, but the racing gods often don’t look too favorably on such overreaching.

The alternative play here is Feathered, who was 13-1 when she had every opportunity to push past Take Charge Brandi (61-1) in the Breeders’ Cup. That was then, and today is a different day.