Weekend Warrior for Aug. 30: Picks for Bernard Baruch, Prioress, Del Mar Debutante
The calendar says summer doesn’t end for at least three more weeks, but calendars aren’t made by horseplayers. Summer, in the world of U.S. horse racing, ends with the conclusion of the Saratoga and Del Mar meets – which comes Monday and Wednesday.
So, the Weekend Warrior hopes to make the most of the last Saturday of the “horseplayer summer” with some winning stakes wagers at those two tracks.
Bernard Baruch Handicap
Picking a horse to beat Wise Dan on turf is almost as hard as picking a boxer to beat Floyd Mayweather. Wise Dan is not unbeaten like Mayweather, but he has come close to perfection on his surface of preference, going 13 for 14 on turf.
And yet in handicapping Saturday’s Bernard Baruch at Saratoga, one gets the sense that he just might be vulnerable. His last win, in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby Day, was close, and it came four months ago – an extended layoff the result of emergency colic surgery.
So, if ever there is a time to take a shot against him, now seems like the time. And so I will.
My upset choice is Sayaad, a 6-1 shot on the morning line who ran a close fifth in the Fourstardave earlier in the meet in a race stronger than this one. And though he weakened in the final furlong that day, Sayaad still ran well, having to chase the speedy Silver Max, taking command, and only tiring late.
Again, he draws a field with an abundance of pace, which might work against him. But that pace presence likely means Sayaad will go off a tick or two higher on the odds board than he should, and something tells me no jockey in the race will want to allow his horse to set a silly pace, knowing that Wise Dan will be tracking them.
Let’s hope to connect with Sayaad at a fat price.
Prioress Stakes
Of the horses in the Prioress at Saratoga, seemingly the strength lies in those exiting the Grade 1 Test on Aug. 2. The Prioress drew four horses exiting that race – runner-up Miss Behaviour, fifth-place Sweet Whiskey, seventh-place Tea Time, and ninth-place Southern Honey.
I prefer Sweet Whiskey, who I’m hopeful will drift up from her 2-1 morning line due in part to her trainer, Todd Pletcher, slumping in recent weeks.
Slumps happen, even for a trainer like Pletcher, who is blessed with the most talent-laden barn in the country. But just like with a baseball player who goes through a stretch of hitting below his average, good luck predicting when the slump ends. It could be today, next week, or next month.
Let’s hope it is Saturday in Pletcher’s case because Sweet Whiskey is appealing on paper. Having made six starts in graded stakes over her eight-race career, she is the most battle-tested runner in the lineup, and the cutback in distance to six furlongs should suit her. Although her recent experience has come in longer one-turn contests, Sweet Whiskey has tired a bit at the end of those races, suggesting she will appreciate running six furlongs.
Del Mar Debutante
Sunset Glow is the most likely winner of the Del Mar Debutante, having won the Sorrento impressively earlier in the meet. But she’s 5-2 and likely to drop lower.
With so many inexperienced horses in this lineup, thereby adding the element of uncertainty to the race, the suggestion here is to look for value, specifically with Windy Forecast, a 12-1 shot on the morning line.
Favored at 2-1 in her debut, she ran well in defeat to finish second to Manahatta, a 5-1 shot in the Del Mar Debutante. And in the maiden race, it was Windy Forecast who was the more fancied of the two horses, going off at 2-1 compared with 7-2 on Manahatta.
Given that Manahatta only beat Windy Forecast by a length, it would seem that Windy Forecast deserves to start at 6-1 or perhaps 8-1 given that Manahatta is a 5-1 shot on the morning line. At 10-1 or higher, Windy Forecast is an overlay.