Weekend Warrior for Aug. 23: Picks for Travers, King's Bishop, Violet
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – Of the many big days of any Saratoga meet, the next-to-last Saturday is always the biggest. It’s Travers Day, and this Grade 1, $1.25 million event tops a program that includes the Grade 1 King’s Bishop, the Grade 1 Ballerina, and the Grade 2 Ballston Spa.
Del Mar, which has the biggest day of its meet Sunday with the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic, has the Grade 2, $200,000 Del Mar Handicap as its Saturday feature.
Travers Stakes
I liked Wicked Strong when he won the Jim Dandy, and I liked Bayern when he won the Haskell. I honestly do not say that to brag because real horseplayers talk about their bad beats, not their wins. But I mention this for context. I want to stress that I have absolutely nothing against Wicked Strong or Bayern when I say that this Travers goes to Tonalist.
There was never any doubt on my end that Bayern would successfully stretch out in the Haskell because there were strong, extenuating circumstances when he lost two of his three prior route attempts, and he won the other. Bayern was terrific in the Haskell, winning as brilliantly as he did in the Woody Stephens two starts back. However, Bayern was the controlling speed in the Haskell on a track that became increasingly speed biased as that day went on. On Saturday, Bayern must compete on a Saratoga main track that has been largely fair all meet, and he must go an additional furlong to boot. Routes are not cheaply won at Saratoga, and while Bayern is the main speed again, Wicked Strong, with his new blinkers-on style, and Tonalist are not going to let him walk on the lead.
Prior to the Jim Dandy, Wicked Strong was too easily distracted, so blinkers on was exactly what the doctor ordered. Wicked Strong, previously a closer, not only showed vastly improved early speed to contest a solid Jim Dandy pace, but he showed focus drawing away late. He is the one Tonalist must beat to get the money.
Tonalist, who showed how versatile he is when he made almost all the pace in winning the Peter Pan and then closed to win the Belmont Stakes, was pointed to the Travers from the moment he won the last leg of the Triple Crown. Tonalist’s connections took the Jim Dandy far more as a mere prep than Wicked Strong’s people did and ran a horse who wasn’t completely cranked up. Tonalist, who still made a strong upper-stretch bid in the Jim Dandy before settling for second, has since worked more aggressively for this, his main goal. That, combined with added distance Tonalist will relish, should produce a big step forward.
King’s Bishop Stakes
The Big Beast and Coup de Grace were impressive winners on the Jim Dandy undercard. Wildcat Red, third in the Haskell, second in the Florida Derby, and the winner of the Fountain of Youth, is finally returning to a sprint, which might well be his best game. But I can’t resist taking a shot with C. Zee.
C. Zee, in his first start at Saratoga and his first for trainer Nick Zito, ran his best race yet when second to Coup de Grace in the Amsterdam on Jim Dandy Day. C. Zee oddly contested a hot pace that day even though he’s better when he makes a run from off the pace. The hope is that C. Zee returns to a closing style Saturday because that could result in an even stronger performance.
Violet Stakes
Starstruck and Irish Mission finished one-two in the Matchmaker on Haskell Day, but I’m against them in this spot. Starstruck won after racing on what seemed the better part of the course near the inside. Irish Mission raced wide and was probably best, but she drew a terrible outside post here and looks locked into another wide journey.
Overheard is the play, as her closing style fits the anticipated pace scenario. Overheard ran big over the course two starts back when she rallied into a glacial pace to be narrowly beaten by Tannery, who admittedly doesn’t seem like the mare she was last year. But Overheard confirmed her sharp form by coming back to win the Dance Smartly from off the pace.