Weekend Warrior for Aug. 2: Picks for Whitney, Test, West Virginia Derby
Saratoga has a terrific card Saturday in support of the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes, which, with a purse of $1.5 million, is the richest race of the meet. Among the four other stakes on the card are two other Grade 1 events – the $500,000 Test Stakes and the $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap.
Del Mar also has a Grade 1 race Saturday, the $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes. And Mountaineer offers the Grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby.
Whitney Stakes
Let’s try something different in this race, something I’ve only done once before as the Warrior, 12 years ago, to be precise, with War Emblem in the Haskell. Palace Malice will be extremely difficult to beat in the Whitney, but I do not like the horses who are the second and third choices on the morning line. So, I’m going to identify two other horses to use underneath Palace Malice in any sort of vertical wager you like.
First, a word about Palace Malice. He is just in raging form right now, and his victory last time out in the Met Mile, combined with his win in last year’s Belmont Stakes, demonstrates an unusual range and depth of quality. Moreover, Palace Malice really should be 3 for 3 at Saratoga. He was the best when a narrowly beaten fourth in last year’s Travers, compromised by a poor start, and a passive ride that failed to put him into the game earlier.
As for the second and third choices on the line, Will Take Charge and Departing, I respect what they have accomplished, but both appear vulnerable.
Will Take Charge won the Travers last year and followed with five excellent performances, including a narrow miss in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But his last three efforts were lacking. I didn’t like the way Will Take Charge lugged in through the stretch when he won the Oaklawn Handicap three starts back, a race that was slow anyway, and he never ran a step in the subsequent Alysheba. And while some saw Will Take Charge’s rallying second in the Stephen Foster Handicap most recently as a signal of a return to form, I saw it as a grinding effort against suspect opposition in another race that wasn’t really fast.
Speaking of the Foster, I can’t find an excuse for why Departing didn’t do better than finish third. Departing has been a prolific winner – 7 for 11 lifetime – but he has never been truly competitive against Whitney-type horses.
Moreno and Itsmyluckyday are the two I’m looking to get home under Palace Malice.
While it’s true that Moreno seems to get mentioned frequently in this space, he was a much-improved second last time out in the Suburban, he was beaten only a nose in last year’s Travers, and most importantly, he can control an early pace here that doesn’t project to be all that fast.
Itsmyluckyday, who showed the requisite quality when a rallying second into a slow pace in last year’s Preakness, is stepping up. But he barely drew a deep breath in winning his last three and will also be forwardly placed.
Test Stakes
Sweet Reason will be a handful in this race. She regained her form off the cutback to one turn in winning the Acorn last time out, and if the track comes up wet, look out. She’s a wet-track freak. But Sweet Reason is a deep closer, and this is a big field, so she will need some racing luck.
I’m going with Southern Honey, a winner of her last three, because she represents a pet angle of mine. When Southern Honey won the Winning Colors most recently, showing an ability to rate that could be critical Saturday, she beat eight older opponents. She now moves back in with straight 3-year-olds, a move that can be construed as a class drop, even in a Grade 1 race.
West Virginia Derby
The scratch of Gold Appointment seriously alters the pace scenario of this race and leads me to take Vicar’s in Trouble over Tapiture and Candy Boy.
:: West Virginia Derby: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live
Vicar’s in Trouble was the beaten favorite when third in the Iowa Derby last time out, but he received an in-between ride in which the jockey didn’t seem to know whether to send or rate. Vicar’s in Trouble looks to be in control of the pace this time, and the last time he was in that situation, he ran away with the Louisiana Derby.