Weekend Warrior for Aug. 16: Picks for Beverly D., American St. Leger, Del Mar Oaks
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
One of America’s most beautiful racetracks takes center stage Saturday, and I’m not talking about Saratoga or Del Mar. It’s Arlington Million Day at Arlington, where the Grade 1, $1 million Arlington Million heads a card that also includes the Grade 1, $750,000 Beverly D. and the Grade 1, $500,000 Secretariat Stakes.
Saratoga has two stakes on its Saturday card – the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama and the Grade 2, $300,000 Lake Placid. And Del Mar also has a Grade 1 feature, the $300,000 Del Mar Oaks.
Beverly D. Stakes
Five of the 11 entrants in this race are coming out of Saratoga’s Diana Stakes, and there are reasons to consider them all. Diana winner Somali Lemonade is much improved with blinkers on, and yet she showed an additional dimension since getting them by rating and winning at Saratoga. Diana runner-up Stephanie’s Kitten would have won if she was able to save even a tiny bit more ground than she did in her wide trip. And even though Alterite, Emollient, and Tannery all finished off the board in the Diana, Alterite was making her first start in 8 1/2 months, Emollient went rank after having early traffic trouble, and Tannery contested the early pace, the exact opposite of the way she wants to run at this level.
That said, there are also reasons to be skeptical of the Diana quintet. Somali Lemonade might have rated nicely, but she also had a perfect trip, one she isn’t likely to pull here after breaking from the extreme outside. Stephanie’s Kitten seems to have lost all the positional speed she once had, and that’s a concern. Alterite might have been short in the Diana, but she’s backed by one of the top layoff trainers in the game (Chad Brown), and she gave way despite attending a very slow pace. And though Emollient and Tannery are good, the jury is out as to whether they have ever been Beverly D. good.
I’m looking at the European shippers, and only in part for how a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Arlington Heights area Saturday might benefit them. But I’m not going with the two Euros who are regarded as the best – Just The Judge and Euro Charline. I suspect those two might be better at shorter distances than the Beverly D.’s 9 1/2 furlongs. I like Sparkling Beam, who probably will not be anywhere near her 20-1 morning-line price.
Sparkling Beam doesn’t have the Group 1 company lines (or, in Just The Judge’s case, success) the other two Europeans have. But she does have a Group 3 win and a couple of Group 2 and Group 3 seconds last year at comparatively longer distances that do put her right in the mix with her fellow Euros. And an easy win in her third start this year, followed by a sharp second when stretched out to a distance near this in her most recent start, suggest that Sparkling Beam is back in her best form.
American St. Leger
Dandino was so much the best in winning this Arlington Million undercard stakes last year, it was ridiculous. But the morning-line favorite for a repeat was in much better form going into this race last year than he is in now, and he seems vulnerable.
I’m going with one of the three other Euro shippers – Eye of The Storm. Eye of The Storm was a winner and Group 3 stakes-placed last fall going two miles (yes, each time!), so you know this demanding 13 1/2-furlong trip will be well within his scope. And Eye of The Storm’s Group 3 win going 12 furlongs at Leopardstown last time out suggests he has rounded back to his best form. It is true that his last win came only nine days ago, but Eye of The Storm did very well over three starts last September with just nine and 11 days between them.
Del Mar Oaks
I have always been more reserved when it comes to My Conquestadory than others, but this is the time to try her.
My Conquestadory was compromised by a three- to four-wide trip throughout and a loose-on-the-lead winner when third last time in the San Clemente. But My Conquestadory didn’t draw outside again, so she doesn’t have to lose as much ground. And this time, Sea Queen is around to keep San Clemente winner Istanford a little more honest up front.