Weekend Warrior for Aug. 15: Picks for Fourstardave, Beverly D., Pucker Up

Grass racing is in the spotlight this Saturday, with five graded stakes on grass at Arlington, a Grade 1 in the Del Mar Oaks for 3-year-old fillies out West, and the Grade 2 Fourstardave for some of the nation’s best turf milers at Saratoga.

Typical of turf racing, fields are deeper than in dirt stakes, creating the potential for more rewarding payoffs. And the Warrior is shooting to win some greenbacks. So, let’s get to it, starting with Saratoga.

Fourstardave

The New York-bred King Kreesa is blazing fast and likely has never been better, and Mshawish’s lone defeat in four starts since the winter came when third in the $6 million Dubai Turf against some of the top grass horses in the world. Yet neither is the horse who has the Warrior intrigued.

Rather, the pick is defending champion Seek Again, and not because he is the most likely winner. He’s not. But he is appealing by potentially offering better odds than his chances of victory. He sits at 6-1 on the morning line, and though that price is likely too generous – with 9-2 or 5-1 seeming more realistic – he is the value among the leading contenders.

His two starts this year were promising. He was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths in his seasonal debut in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill Downs (he was elevated from fourth to third due to interference), and his follow-up third in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita against a prime group of California turfers might have even been a smidge better.

Now he returns to Saratoga, where he won this race last year by a neck. He likely would have won by at least a couple of lengths if he had not experienced a troubled trip.

Beverly D.

The sister race to the Arlington Million, this race drew the one-two finishers from last year’s running: Euro Charline and Stephanie’s Kitten. But the thinking here is that both will be overbet.

That could create an appealing price on an overseas invader, the 3-year-old Wedding Vow, who is 4-1 on the morning line. Slow to come around, she won for the first time only two races ago in her sixth start. That win came in a Group 2 stakes race vs. older, reflecting the quality that trainer Aidan O’Brien believes she has.

She then returned in a lucrative Group 1, once again facing older females, and ran second at 10-1. She ran every bit as well, if not better, than she did in her prior victory. And when a horse shows an improving pattern of pairing up top efforts, further progress is often in the cards, particularly when dealing with a 3-year-old.

Now her connections show supreme confidence in her by shipping her to Chicago to once again face older females. They obviously want to make her a Grade 1 winner, and it is not as if there is a shortage of Group 1 or Grade 1 races for her in her age group.

Throw in that the 1 3/16-mile distance of the race suits Wedding Vow, and she rates as one of the best wagers of the Arlington card.

Pucker Up

A Grade 3 race for 3-year-old fillies, this race isn’t as prestigious as others on the Million card, but with 11 evenly matched entrants, it is an interesting betting race. I suspect Miss Chatelaine will get bet down from her 7-2 morning line because she is dropping out of the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She was never a factor in that race, finishing eighth and passing only tired runners – leading me to try to beat her.

My preference is Prado’s Sweet Ride, a winner of four of five races on grass, including her last start, which came in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill Downs. She also has the advantage of being locally based, unlike so many of the shippers who come into Arlington for Million Day.

Year after year, her trainer, Chris Block, excels with developing grass horses, and this time everyone is playing on his home course, where Prado’s Sweet Ride won a maiden race last year. She also has trained on the Polytrack and turf at Arlington for months.