Weekend Warrior for April 5: Picks for Bay Shore, Santa Anita Oaks, Ashland
Saturday is the second of three straight Saturdays with major final Kentucky Derby preps, and this time, Santa Anita and Aqueduct are in the spotlight. The Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby lured the Kentucky Derby favorite of the moment, California Chrome, while the headliner at Aqueduct is the Wood Memorial, which is also a Grade 1, $1 million event.
Bay Shore Stakes
This undercard event at Aqueduct used to be the penultimate local prep for the Wood Memorial, but has been a standalone sprint for a number of years now. Kobe’s Back is the morning-line favorite off the cutback to the seven-furlong distance at which he romped in the San Vicente two starts back. But at a short price, Kobe’s Back is not particularly appealing. He received a dream setup in the San Vicente, with half of the six-horse field hooking up in an early speed battle.
I like Favorite Tale, who is perfect so far after three starts at Parx Racing, despite the big bump in class, and the fact that he is making his stakes debut. Favorite Tale was almost freakish winning most recently by 14 lengths with a field-best Beyer Figure of 101, and though he is more than quick enough early to control the pace here if he wants, he also appears to rate willingly, and doesn’t seem like a need-the-lead type.
In the Wood, Social Inclusion might be every bit as good as his 10-length win over Remsen winner Honor Code and his heady 111 Beyer last time out suggests. However, Social Inclusion got away with the easiest kind of early lead in that romp, and he rode the crest of a speed bias when he won his debut two starts back. Someone, whether it be Uncle Sigh, Kristo, or Noble Moon, will test Social Inclusion early in a way he has not seen so far, and how he responds is anyone’s guess.
The strength of Samraat’s win in the Gotham is open to question after third-place finisher In Trouble came up empty in last week’s Louisiana Derby, but I still prefer him. Samraat has risen to the occasion in all five of his starts, and he’s in line for another sweet stalking trip.
As for the Carter, I’m a fan of Sahara Sky, but unsure he’s all the way back to his sharp form of a year ago. Clearly Now is an attractive alternative. He ran well despite major trouble in the Cigar Mile, and his win before that in the Bold Ruler at the distance over the track was huge.
Santa Anita Oaks
Fashion Plate might hold an insurmountable pace advantage here. When she prevailed in the Las Virgenes most recently, she was pressed around the first turn and wound up setting a fair pace on a track without bias. But on Saturday, it’s unclear if any of Fashion Plate’s opponents can keep her honest early.
[Santa Anita Derby Day: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live]
That said, I’m still going with Arethusa. Arethusa was a gaining third in the Las Virgenes (admittedly into a slow final quarter-mile), and was out very well past the wire. I just think Arethusa will make big steps forward with maturity and distance, enough to turn the tables on Fashion Plate even if she is at a pace disadvantage.
I can’t go against California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby. He was just so impressive in the San Felipe. But I think Hoppertunity is California Chrome’s main threat, and not Candy Boy, who, like Cairo Prince failed to do last week in the Florida Derby, must run faster than he ever has to contend.
Ashland Stakes
Testa Rossi and Room Service are both closers, and they seem like ideal fits in a race loaded with pace. Testa Rossi couldn’t have been more visually impressive winning the Florida Oaks in her first start this year, but that race came up light against the clock, and the field she beat wasn’t strong. Room Service wasn’t as visually impressive winning the Herecomesthebride last time, but she earned a better Beyer, and she beat the better field.
I will have Room Service (please). I think she will be the slightly better price, and I like that she had two good breezes over a surface she will be racing on for the first time.