Weekend Warrior for April 25: Picks for Last Tycoon, Excelsior, Miami Mile
The Saturday before the Kentucky Derby is understandably light in terms of stakes action, with four Grade 3 events topping the schedule – the $200,000 Excelsior at Aqueduct, the $100,000 Last Tycoon at Santa Anita, the $100,000 San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate Fields, and the $100,000 Miami Mile at Gulfstream. The Miami Mile will have a say in Gulfstream’s Rainbow 6 mandatory payout Saturday, which could include a giant, seven-figure carryover if it lasts until Saturday.
Last Tycoon Stakes
Big John B was a revelation once he relocated to Southern California midway through last year. The onetime modestly successful claimer won his first three starts on the circuit, capped by a dominating score in the Del Mar Handicap, and followed with a good third in the John Henry Turf Championship. In fact, Big John B got so good that he was given a start in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and was not disgraced, finishing ninth despite being seriously overmatched. If Big John B returns Saturday in the form he displayed at his best last summer, he will be a handful. But that’s a big “if” considering that he’s coming off a layoff of almost six months, and I’m leaning against him.
I’m more interested in Ganesh and Quick Casablanca, who are suitably stretching out off their seasonal debuts three weeks ago in the one-mile Thunder Road Stakes, which was an obvious prep since both prefer much longer distances.
Both Ganesh and Quick Casablanca finished with some interest in the Thunder Road after stretch runs that were not exactly unhindered, especially for Quick Casablanca, and wound up fifth and eighth. And both galloped out well past the wire, with Quick Casablanca winning the gallop-out between the two only because Ganesh had to be more careful, being between horses past the wire. Most importantly, both have the back form for success if the Thunder Road served its purpose as a prep, which I think it did. Ganesh, who was making his U.S. debut in the Thunder Road, was a Group 1 winner in Argentina. Quick Casablanca won this race last year and followed with two Grade 2 stakes placings.
What separates these two for me is connections. Ron McAnally, the trainer of Quick Casablanca, is a Hall of Famer but has not won a race this year. Dick Mandella, the trainer of Ganesh, is winning at a 22 percent clip this season and has a positive return on investment in the categories pertinent to this situation. McAnally’s first winner this year will be a strike, looking, for me, and I’m going with Ganesh.
Excelsior Stakes
I fully realize that in addition to winning the Wood Memorial and Jim Dandy Stakes last year, Wicked Strong was beaten only a nose in the 10-furlong Travers and less than two lengths in the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes. Yet despite that, I sense that he is at his very best at distances shorter than the 1 1/4 miles he must go Saturday.
Now, it is quite possible that Wicked Strong doesn’t have to be at his best to win this race. But I also wonder just what his status is at the moment. I was taken aback at how cold on the board he was last time in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, his 2015 debut. He also was one-paced that day and never got past the dueling pacesetters.
I’m going with the other Jimmy Jerkens-trained entrant, Effinex. Effinex began to put it all together late last year and returned in his recent seasonal debut with his best effort yet. He won decisively in legitimately fast time, and his performance was flattered when the distant third-place finisher came back to win at Aqueduct on Wednesday by a city block with a 104 Beyer Speed Figure.
Miami Mile
Grand Tito was compromised by a ridiculously wide trip last time in the Appleton but finished a fine third. He launched his rider out of the back of the gate two back in the Canadian Turf, lost the early position he should have had, and still finished second. Grand Tito went too far in the Gulfstream Turf three back, but four back, he lost a photo in the Fort Lauderdale to Mshawish, who was as good as any turf horse seen in Florida over the winter.
Grand Tito will be a short price here. But he is a Rainbow 6 single for me because if he gets any kind of fair trip, he will crush this field.