Weekend Warrior for April 2: Picks for Spiral, Appleton, San Simeon stakes

Saturday is the biggest day of the year at Gulfstream Park, with a special renewal of the Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby topping a card that also includes seven other stakes, six of them graded. And what makes this edition of the Florida Derby undeniably special is the matchup between two undefeated colts – Mohaymen, the current future-book favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and Nyquist, last year’s champion 2-year-old male.

Saturday is also the biggest day of the year at Turfway Park, where the Grade 3, $500,000 Spiral Stakes leads a stakes tripleheader.

Spiral Stakes

This Florida Derby might be one of the most important Kentucky Derby preps in years, but it is also essentially a two-horse affair and not a good betting race. The Spiral is really a Win and You’re In race for the Kentucky Derby, with 50 Derby qualifying points going to the winner, but being run on Polytrack, it’s questionable whether the Spiral will have any impact of true meaning on the Derby beyond merely producing a starter. It is a terrific betting race, though.

Airoforce is the morning-line favorite, and if we see the Airoforce who won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November over top Derby candidate Mor Spirit and Mo Tom, he’ll win. But that is a big “if.” Airoforce was dreadful in his only start this year, being virtually eased in the Risen Star in his first start on a dry main track. He now makes his first start on a synthetic surface, and while his terrific turf form of last fall – he was tons the best in winning the Bourbon Stakes and narrowly missing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – suggests he will handle Polytrack, I can’t endorse a horse trying a new surface off a bad race as the likely favorite.

I’m standing against Azar, too. Azar, also new to Polytrack, was a graded stakes winner on grass last year. But I thought his two efforts this year at Gulfstream were only okay at best, and he’s in line to pull a wide trip from his outside post.

I liked Surgical Strike (and selected him here) when he won Turfway’s prep for the Spiral, the John Battaglia Memorial, and I’m taking him to score right back. Granted, the group Surgical Strike faces Saturday is better than the one he beat in the Battaglia, and his Beyer Speed Figures are comparatively light as well. However, Surgical Strike’s Beyers were compromised by a pair of tough trips in the Pulpit and Dania Beach stakes and a start at too short a distance in the WEBN Stakes two starts back.

In the Battaglia, Surgical Strike was caught three to four wide on the first turn and was well behind an early pace that was not particularly fast. Nevertheless, he unleashed a bold, four-wide run on the far turn, had to go seven to eight wide into the stretch, and yet still steamrolled his field to score by open lengths, going away. Surgical Strike, the lone member of the Spiral field to have won on Turfway’s Polytrack, gets a pace setup Saturday that might be even more favorable for his late kick.

Appleton Stakes

I really liked Divisidero’s gaining third in the paceless Canadian Turf off a long layoff, and I’m a fan. But I think Divisidero’s late kick might be pace compromised again here, and I feel he wants more distance than the one mile of this race.

All Included, my play, was unsuited to the 11 furlongs of the Mac Diarmida last time, was in tight inside in the paceless Gulfstream Turf two back, and was compromised by a slow pace when third in the Fort Lauderdale three back. All Included now gets blinkers on and a switch to the aggressive Javier Castellano, which I hope means he will be in the game from the start, if not right on the early lead.

San Simeon Stakes

There is a lot going in this feature on the downhill course at Santa Anita. I could see No Silent, Guns Loaded, or Cape Wolfe winning. But I believe Hay Dude is the one here.

Hay Dude found 10 furlongs too far in the San Marcos most recently but won big two starts back. However, it was Hay Dude’s one downhill attempt in the 2015 Clocker’s Corner that makes him compelling here. Hay Dude had traffic all over the place that day, including through the stretch, and yet still just missed.