Weekend Warrior for April 19: Picks for Ben Ali, Lexington, Robert Hilton Memorial

Charles Town has carved out a nice little niche for itself with the Grade 2, $1.5 million Charles Town Classic. And this event again takes center stage Saturday as Game On Dude attempts to defend his title on the heels of one of the best performances of his career in winning the Santa Anita Handicap in his last start.

Even though the major Kentucky Derby preps are over, 3-year-olds are still prominent Saturday as they contest the Grade 3, $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne and the Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington at Keeneland.

Ben Ali Stakes

This is the supporting feature at Keeneland, and seven of the 10 entered have won on Keeneland’s Polytrack. Four of those seven have had noteworthy success on that surface – Nikki’s Sandcastle won the Fayette last fall, Joha won the 2012 Breeders’ Futurity, Winning Cause won last year’s Lexington, and Newsdad won the 2012 Fayette. But I like a horse whose only prior success on Keeneland’s Polytrack came in a mere allowance race – Norumbega.

Norumbega’s Polytrack win came last fall and was achieved with a soft trip as part of an early pace. But the outing demonstrated that Norumbega handles the footing, and I like how he ran in his two starts since.

After his Keeneland win, Norumbega finished second in the Discovery Handicap. While it is true that he was soundly beaten by Romansh that day, Romansh has shown signs of being a top-notch performer, and the Discovery was a very quickly run race for the relative speed of the track, resulting in Norumbega receiving a then-career-best Beyer Speed Figure.

Most recently, Norumbega was second in the Skip Away, and I liked that effort even more. Norumbega was coming off a layoff of almost five months and was conceding a significant recency edge to eventual winner Micromanage. But Norumbega was easily second-best after a three-wide trip throughout and figures to only improve on his comeback. In fact, Norumbega has always given the impression that he was one who would get better with age, and that he was able in the Skip Away to marginally improve on the Beyer he earned in the Discovery indicates he is doing just that. Norumbega’s best performances are still in front of him.

Of the prior Keeneland Polytrack stakes winners noted earlier, Newsdad might be regarded as the most dangerous, as he returned to top form last time out in winning the Pan American. However, his distance cutback from 12 to nine furlongs is some cause for pause. I’m more intrigued with Nikki’s Sandcastle. He had a bit of early trouble when fourth in the Skip Away and can be much more competitive off the surface switch.

Lexington Stakes

I suppose I’m looking for trainer Shug McGaughey to have a big day Saturday at Keeneland. McGaughey trains Norumbega, and I also like his entrant in this spot, Mr Speaker.

With the exception of an unsuccessful experiment on dirt two starts back in the Holy Bull, in which he was too close to the early pace, all of Mr Speaker’s recent races were good. He made a strong rail move when he won the Dania Beach three starts back and was a terrific second in the Palm Beach most recently.

In the Palm Beach, Mr Speaker broke a half-step slowly, which resulted in him getting shuffled back early. But he made an eye-catching move down the backstretch and into the far turn and sustained his run to fall just a half-length short. How big was Mr Speaker’s middle move in the Palm Beach? I know fractions in turf races at Gulfstream make little sense at times, but if the splits in the Palm Beach are to be believed, then Mr Speaker ran his third and fourth quarter-miles in 22.73 seconds each. That’s some serious running.

This will be Mr Speaker’s synthetic-track debut, but his fine turf form and a strong work at Keeneland this month bode well for a successful surface switch.

Robert Hilton Memorial

How about a little nighttime action in this undercard stakes at Charles Town?

I’m going against Rise Up, who is taking a massive class drop but gave up the ghost in the stretch in both of his starts this year. I like Open the Bank, who was second in his two starts this year against hard-hitting older horses and now moves back in with straight 3-year-olds. I also like the distance turnback for Open the Bank.