Weekend Warrior for April 18: Picks for Charles Town Classic, Elkhorn, Dahlia
Charles Town Races, the six-furlong track in West Virginia, is single-handedly altering the perception of bullrings. Not only does Charles Town offer the richest U.S. race of the entire month in the Grade 2, $1.5 million Charles Town Classic on Saturday, it lured Shared Belief, the best horse in America, if not the world, to run in it.
Other races of note Saturday include the Grade 3, $400,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne; the Grade 2, $250,000 Elkhorn at Keeneland; the Grade 2, $200,000 Distaff at Aqueduct; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Santa Barbara at Santa Anita.
Charles Town Classic
No one has more respect for Shared Belief than me. Even in the face of some very exciting 3-year-old prospects this year, Shared Belief is the best horse in America, and by a significant margin. And the big deal some are making about this being his first start outside of California, and him being vulnerable because if it, is nonsense. California is a big state. Shared Belief won from Golden Gate to Del Mar and points in between. The distance he covered doing that would cover the distance between eight or nine states in the Northeast. Just because a few other prominent California-based horses failed to take their “A” game on the road doesn’t mean Shared Belief won’t. He is a different individual, on a few levels.
However, as a horseplayer, I wonder about the choice of this race for Shared Belief. I realize he’s a gelding, that this is an extremely lucrative opportunity, that California horses have run well in this race in the past, and that this spot fits perfectly timing-wise for Shared Belief’s primary goal, the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes Day. I get all of that. But I wonder how good a fit Shared Belief is for Charles Town.
Charles Town has tight turns, and this is a three-turn race. Shared Belief’s best performances have all been punctuated by wide, sweeping moves. Maybe that’s just the way he has been ridden because he has been so much the best. Maybe Shared Belief doesn’t have to run that way, but I do get the sense that he’s more comfortable being outside. I’ve always considered ground loss on tracks with tight turns to be more costly than on tracks with more gentle turns (like Belmont), and being three or four wide around three Charles Town turns would be costly. I know Shared Belief might easily concede all that ground and still win laughing, but it’s something to think about.
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I’m taking an upset shot with General a Rod. I’ve never been a big General a Rod fan. I thought his placings last year in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby were bias-aided, and his win last time in the Challenger Stakes was at the expense of a hungry field. But General a Rod might be Race Day, version 2. Race Day moved into the Todd Pletcher barn late last year and improved dramatically, ripping off four straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, including a 110 while romping in last week’s Oaklawn Handicap. The Challenger was General a Rod’s first start for Pletcher, and he improved dramatically to earn a career-best Beyer of 104. There might be more of that in store.
Elkhorn Stakes
Dynamic Sky is dropping in class and moving to a more suitable surface Saturday, but I fell for him after his big gallop-out in the San Gabriel three starts back, and he burned me with a dull fifth in the San Marcos.
Biz The Nurse is my play. Biz The Nurse is meeting much tougher than he beat in his U.S. debut at Gulfstream, but I liked his sustained five- to six-wide rally on the final turn that day. And Biz The Nurse was a Group 1 winner in Italy, so he should handle the class jump.
Dahlia Stakes
With the expectation that Stellar Path will opt for the small field in the Plenty of Grace Stakes on Friday at Aqueduct, this is a prime spot for A Little Bit Sassy to make a winning 4-year-old debut.
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A Little Bit Sassy’s form late last year was darkened by tough trips from poor, outside posts, but any of her three stakes efforts last spring and summer, including a near miss in Saratoga’s Lake George, would get the job done here. A Little Bit Sassy has a favorable inside post Saturday, and being first-time Lasix is a boost, too.