Weekend Warrior for April 12: Picks for Blue Grass, Commonwealth, Arkansas Derby
Saturday marks the final round of major Kentucky Derby preps, with Keeneland and Oaklawn Park hosting the main events. Oaklawn’s Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby is the richest race of the day, and the Grade 2, $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap, which lured Will Take Charge, is the primary supporting feature. The Grade 1, $750,000 Blue Grass tops a Keeneland card that includes four other graded stakes. Two of them, the Jenny Wiley and the Madison, are Grade 1, $300,000 races.
Blue Grass Stakes
Bobby’s Kitten is talented, and it would be no surprise if he won. But he’s not a good play as the favorite. Although his fine grass form is an encouraging sign for a successful transition to Polytrack, the fact remains that this will be Bobby’s Kitten’s first start on a surface other than turf. Bobby’s Kitten also has had issues relaxing early. He might be the controlling speed, but others here are capable of applying pace pressure and taking some of the starch out of him. And in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, there are others in this Blue Grass who are as fast, if not faster, than Bobby’s Kitten.
Medal Count is wheeling back in only eight days after winning the off-the-turf Transylvania on opening day at Keeneland, and I’m taking him to win right back. Medal Count’s good effort in the Transylvania was no shock because if you dismiss his outing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he raced without Lasix, and his start in the Fountain of Youth, in which he was compromised by a speed-biased track, his overall form is good.
It is true that in the Transylvania, Medal Count had good fortune with a mostly ground-saving trip. Then again, Medal Count was shuffled back on the inside a couple of times going into and on the first turn, putting him farther off the early pace than he might have wanted. But Medal Count scored decisively while appearing to still have something left, and he earned a Beyer of 94, which is the best in this field.
As for the quick turnaround, one could say that Medal Count is in the Blue Grass only in a last-ditch attempt to secure enough points to start in the Kentucky Derby. But it should be noted that trainer Dale Romans has had success when he has brought good horses – stakes and allowance horses – back in fewer than 10 days, even if the sample is small. According to Daily Racing Form ’s Formulator, Romans has had five such starters over the last five years, and three of them won, including Guys Reward in the 2012 Opening Verse Stakes.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
Commonwealth Stakes
My hope is that Laugh Track’s last two outings, which are not pretty on paper, will throw some people off the scent and help boost his odds, because I like him.
I think Laugh Track’s last two races, a seventh in the Gulfstream Park Sprint and a ninth in the Cigar Mile, are throw-outs. Although the track was not overtly speed-favoring the day Laugh Track ran at Gulfstream, in general, that main track is not kind to the sort of closing sprinter Laugh Track morphed into last year. And in the Cigar Mile, Laugh Track was too close to the early pace.
In contrast, Laugh Track’s prior two performances were strong. After a gaining second in the Phoenix Stakes on the same surface he goes on Saturday, Laugh Track was second, beaten a neck, in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Laugh Track did get a good pace setup in the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s in line for another good pace setup Saturday while returning to a track he likes.
Arkansas Derby
Tapiture, a tough-trip second in the Rebel last time after a romping win in the Southwest, and Bayern, an impressive winner of his two starts, are certainly the two with the best chances to win here. But I’m going with Ride On Curlin, whom I think is being overlooked and might be an overlay despite his very good third in the Rebel.
It appears that folks are attributing Ride On Curlin’s improvement in the Rebel to the wet track. But that would be selling Ride On Curlin short, as he was a solid third in the Grade 1 Champagne last fall on a dry track. Ride On Curlin didn’t have the trouble in the Rebel that Tapiture had, but he did do the dirty work contesting the pace, and he can do better this time with rating tactics.