Weekend GamePlan for Sept. 4, 2021: Picks for Jockey Club Gold Cup, Del Mar Derby, Saranac
A somewhat limited North American menu of stakes action this Sept. 4, 2021. Saratoga’s stakes have shorter fields, fewer contenders, while the two turf stakes at Del Mar, the John C. Mabee and the Del Mar Derby, hardly could look more competitive. Still, there’s a chance to wring at least a touch of value from both scenarios.
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Let’s talk about Happy Saver, perceived early this year as a leading light in the older horse dirt-route division after winning the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup in his 3-year-old finale. Happy Saver won his comeback start, but appeared to labor against overmatched allowance foes, and his performance July 3 in the Suburban, while improved, looked similar, with Happy Saver churning along without really taking his rider anywhere. There are plenty of recent Happy Saver workout videos available, and he’s shown more life his last couple drills, but it’d be hard to come away purely impressed with them.
All this being the case, money likely gravitates toward Forza Di Oro, admirable for sure, but to my mind almost certainly overbet Saturday. Forza Di Oro has won his last two starts by open lengths, but neither performance especially caught the eye, either visually or on the clock, at least in terms of finishing time. All signs point to his getting 1 1/4 miles, but he has yet to try the trip, and while acknowledging playing the game of “who’d he beat?” can be foolish, Forza Di Oro has yet to face anything stronger than Grade 3-level opposition.
I’m backing Max Player, value at his 5-2 morning line. My sense is Max Player’s victory in the 1 1/4-mile Suburban, where he beat the division’s pro-tem leader, Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide, will be perceived as a fluke. Maybe it was. The race was run over a wet track that perhaps moved Max Player up while knocking Happy Saver down.
But Max Player had hinted at low-end Grade 1 talent finishing third, hitting 99 on the Beyer scale, in the 2020 Travers. His Pimlico Special flatly disappointed, but he never was going to factor in the Saudi Cup, which set his 2021 campaign sideways at the start. His recent team works with Midnight Bourbon, who got a 107 Beyer just missing in the Travers, have been very encouraging, and I’ll bet Max Player to go one place better than his stablemate on Saturday.
Del Mar Derby
My first pass into the 14-horse Del Mar Derby felt like plunging into densest underbrush deep in the forest: It was dark and thorny, and immediately I felt lost.
At some point, No Foolery Here caught my eye, and a deeper dive into his form suggests he can win – or at least give a good account of himself – at a square price.
No Foolery Here has only one win from five starts, but his race experience has been diverse and challenging, and he actually has shown something positive in all of his starts. His maiden win, his lone race at this nine-furlong distance, lacked flash, but I thought he looked more comfortable in the rhythm of that longer race than in his one-mile tries. Still, back to a mile in the Oceanside, he ran the best race of his career and turned in possibly the best performance in that field considering his rider, going inside, had to wait for room around the quarter pole.
No Foolery Here has been patiently handled, worked into this start while many others in the field have raced more recently, and the horse I most fear, Sword Zorro (very much best when taking a tough DQ last out) has drawn a challenging post.
Saranac
Public Sector has the feel of a Chad Brown fait accompli in the Saranac, but I wonder how much he actually has improved this summer. He got a perfect trip skimming the rail last out in the one-mile Hall of Fame, and the added half-furlong Saturday doesn’t help him.
Brown’s other turf horse, Founder, could post an upset. He lost his turf debut, the June 4 allowance race won by Public Sector, when he was compromised at the start, yet still turned in the fastest final quarter-mile, 22.50, in that race. At Monmouth July 31, the rider was taking an inside route from the back of the back at the three-furlong pole, sensed he’d be stopped, pulled the reins and swung to the far outside, and still had so much horse that he won with speed to spare.