Weekend GamePlan for Sept. 3, 2022: Picks for Jockey Club Gold Cup, Del Mar Mile, Mint Million
Well, this is it. We get to see “the greatest horse to ever look through a bridle” step up to the classic distance, 1 1/4 miles. That’s the phrase trainer Bud Delp applied to Spectacular Bid, in the conversation for the distinction.
Racing pundits and tastemakers are far out over their skis with Flightline; he seems to already have entered the same conversation. The horse’s brilliance shines bright. He breezes like a monster. He won the Met Mile, shipping for the first time and overcoming trouble (though beating a main rival who had already gone over the top).
Flightline’s fabulous, but personally I’d like to see him race two turns before I add my own 60-watt bulb to his halo. And if he is as good as he’s supposed to be – all due respect to the street fighter County Grammer – Flightline’s supposed to win this Pacific Classic by open lengths.
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Odds-on favorites Annapolis and War Like Goddess are difficult to get around in earlier Saturday stakes at Saratoga, but better price possibilities exist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where Americanrevolution and Olympiad vie for favoritism. I can’t have Olympiad right now; he was too bad in the Whitney, running like a horse whose long, strong campaign had exacted a toll. He had no other apparent excuse.
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Americanrevolution was scratched from the Whitney, won by his stablemate Life Is Good, to await this spot. He ought to be tough, and from what we’ve seen from this lumbering colt going 1 1/8 miles, the 1 1/4 miles, which he’s never tried, should be within his scope.
Nonetheless, I like First Captain for a minor upset. First Captain goes 1 1/4 miles for the second time, following a near miss in the Suburban. He’ll have to take a solid step forward from that performance to win, but I think he can.
First Captain was on his way to becoming a serious 3-year-old last summer when his campaign went off the rails. Trainer Shug McGaughey, old school style, took a measured approach this year, running a horse meant for routes in two seven-furlong races to start his campaign. The Carter was a disaster, leading to the addition of blinkers, which produced a jump back to form at Pimlico. Now, First Captain has a two-race, blinkers-on route platform from which to hit the best form of his life. His major work for this on Aug. 28 gave all the right signs, and from this draw, jockey Luis Saez can play the other potential pace horses, with First Captain capable of pressing if the tempo is slow, or, better still, dropping to midpack and coming with what I expect to be a powerful finish.
Del Mar Mile
Really like Cathkin Peak to win a race thrown wide open by the absence of his Phil D’Amato-trained stablemate Count Again.
This horse has his quirks, starting with the fact he was perfectly relaxed during his 2-year-old races before he started pulling too hard as a supposedly more mature animal. Even so, he might’ve won the Del Mar Derby last summer with better luck, and while he did pull two back in his 4-year-old debut, he won that allowance race nicely.
Cathkin Peak got bounced around like a pebble in the surf at the start of the Eddie Read – and his trip scarcely got better from there. He had four separate instances of trouble and still finished fastest for third. I love the cut back to a one-mile race with ample pace entered, and Cathkin Peak is going to come flying late.
Mint Million
Not a believer in the morning line here, starting with Pixelate as the 5-2 favorite. Atone, 7-2 on the line, looks like the chalk.
One hears a lot about Atone’s trainer Mike Maker’s exploits at Kentucky Downs. Thus, it was surprising to see Maker went 4 for 49 at the 2021 meet. Atone is all right, and so is Pixelate, but for me, the Mint Million comes down to Cavalry Charge and Kentucky Ghost, who is the much fresher horse.
Just draw a line through the gelding’s 2022 debut, after which he won well rallying into a fast pace at Monmouth, and unless this turns into a grab-fest, the tempo here will also be strong. Yes, there’s the class drop from the Grade 1 United Nations, where Kentucky Ghost actually ran all right, but perhaps more important, this horse does not seem to care for three-turn races like the United Nations. His lone start over this tricky course already puts Kentucky Ghost right in the mix, and here’s hoping he can go even a little better.