Weekend Gameplan for Sept. 25, 2021: Picks for Cotillion, Parx Dirt Mile, and Duchess
Pity Medina Spirit didn’t make the trip, but the Pennsylvania Derby rematch between Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon still entices as the main event on the first Saturday of fall racing in 2021. My guess is Midnight Bourbon has made more progress through the summer than Hot Rod Charlie – but it’s not quite a strong enough guess to make this week’s three plays.
Cotillion
I really thought Clairiere would win the Kentucky Oaks. She did not, and while Clairiere has developed to some extent through a successful campaign – one that only includes a single win – she hasn’t yet become the filly I thought she might. Neither of her two trips in Saratoga Grade 1s was anything close to favorable, but the 1 1/4 miles of the Alabama might better suit Clairiere than the Cotillion’s 1 1/16 miles, and she is the 2-1 favorite here.
Second choice Army Wife really caught the eye in the Iowa Oaks, but while the cutback in distance from the Alabama might help her more than Clairiere – and she did run well in the Alabama – I think Army Wife has plateaued.
With Private Mission not shipping from California, Always Carina could wind up loose on the lead, but it’s hard to feel optimistic about this filly’s progression when she has taken steps back in her two starts following a pair of extremely sharp showings launching her career.
Maracuja probably bounced in the Alabama off an upset of divisional leader Malathaat, but she has no other form to validate her CCA Oaks surprise.
At the expected odds – and she’s a legit 10-1 on the line – I have to go back to Obligatory in the Cotillion.
This is the third time I’ve touted Obligatory in this space and the first two – the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Test – did not go well. In the Test, Obligatory broke poorly and was disadvantaged by a slow pace, but she also failed to show anything close to her best. Her workouts into the race had looked strong, and I’m just throwing that performance out. It’s fair to wonder whether Obligatory is a two-turn horse given her poor run at Fair Grounds in her lone route start, but that’s why you get a price, and I think she stands a decent chance of handling the trip. Given the way Obligatory finished in the Fair Grounds Oaks, with plenty of energy and in a time comparable to the top horses, I think she just got lost in her route debut after shipping from Florida as an inexperienced filly. Obligatory in other respects seems like a solid two-turn prospect, and for the first time since the Eight Belles she’s offering real value in the win pool.
Parx Dirt Mile
Silver State obviously merits favoritism in the Parx Dirt Mile, but West Will Power is the play.
Silver State already has earned $1.6 million during 2021 and is a Grade 1 winner this year. He’s clearly in this ungraded, $200,000 race as a bridge to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, his connections waiting to tackle Life Is Good at Del Mar rather than on Saturday in the Kelso at Belmont. This is not to say Silver State can’t prep for his November start and win, but he is not meant to be at his best, while West Will Power is a lightly raced 4-year-old on the rise.
Forza Di Oro might have disappointed as the favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but his performance winning a Saratoga allowance over West Will Power on July 21 was undeniably strong. A month later at his home base, Monmouth, West Will Power ran into the best version of Code of Honor, a Grade 1-level horse, while getting to a career peak in the Iselin. West Will Power is a horse that appears to benefit from encouragement with the crop, not allowed in the Iselin at Monmouth but permitted in the Parx Dirt Mile, which he can win at a fair price.
Duchess
A surprising amount of 3-year-old filly talent showed up in the ungraded Duchess, where I’ll hope for something a little juicier than the 5-2 morning-line odds on Miss Speedy. The turnback to seven furlongs from two routes is everything; Miss Speedy failed to relax last out in the Bison City and had run out of gas by upper stretch. Winning at a one-turn trip in her debut, Miss Speedy showed the ability to come inside and between horses, to hit a narrow gap, to make multiple moves – and ample ability to take down favored Lady War Machine here.