Weekend GamePlan for Sept. 12, 2020: Picks for Runhappy Turf Sprint, Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, Queen's Plate

It’s a fairly quiet Saturday the week after fireworks at Churchill Downs and Saratoga.

Cast an eye across the Atlantic, with the Irish Champion, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series race linked to the BC Turf, on Saturday at Leopardstown, and the Arc trials Sunday at Longchamp.

It’s Queen’s Plate Day at Woodbine, and we’ll go there, but the focus turns to Kentucky Downs. The featured Kentucky Turf Cup will have Zulu Alpha solidly favored over Arklow. I’m willing to take on both at their respective prices, my top stabs being Red Prince and Postulation. I’ve also picked against Got Stormy in the Ladies Turf Sprint (Kimari is likely to be scratched) with a mild tout of Winning Envelope at long odds. Those are the supporting plays. On to the main ones.

Runhappy Turf Sprint

You won’t find many more competitive races, and the morning-line favorite Totally Boss is listed at just 9-2. I’m not really buying the line, though. Front Run the Fed and Stubbins, priced at 5-1 and 6-1, respectively, will occupy a lower tier in the betting than the race’s top choices – Totally Boss, Bound for Nowhere, and Kanthaka. I think Imprimis could be fourth choice, after which we’ll get a drop off to Front Run the Fed and Stubbins. A horse like American Anthem seems more a 25-1 shot than his listed 12-1.

Imprimis can really run, but I am fairly sure he prefers races shorter than this, and six furlongs at Kentucky Downs, with an uphill finish, is a testing six furlongs. Bound for Nowhere has run higher-level races than anyone in the field, but he barely has run at all over the last two calendar years, and to me never has gotten back to his peak 2018 form.

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So, this comes down to Totally Boss and Kanthaka. I love Totally Boss, who offered great value winning this race’s 2019 renewal at 4-1. Totally Boss can get home at 5 1/2 furlongs but six is better for him, and he showed in July at Keeneland he’s the same horse as a year ago.

Still, I’ll take Kanthaka to knock him off, presumably at a square price.

Kanthaka earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure going seven furlongs in his third career start and looked like one of the fastest members of his generation. He was a victim, to some extent, of the Triple Crown, his connections trying to make a 3-year-old route horse out of a sprinter-miler. Early in his 4-year-old season, he showed his sprint potential again with a fine second to champion Roy H. This is all by way of saying that Kanthaka’s powerhouse performance in the Jaipur didn’t come from nowhere. Kanthaka had been off more than a year before that race, and he ran into Oleksandra, who is a very good mare generally and a tigress at Belmont particularly.

I’ve been following Kanthaka’s training since that race, and from all outward appearances he has not missed a beat. Turf sprints at six furlongs worth $700,000 do not grow on trees, and my hope is trainer Graham Motion has him tuned to perfect pitch for this test.

Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf

Mitchell Road has lost three of her last eight starts as the favorite, but there’s a change of roles coming as she’s likely to start as an overlay Saturday. Mitchell Road has three straight excuses (soft turf, bad start, post 14) that will help her price, and she showed she handles the Kentucky Downs course, finishing second in this race a year ago. Luis Saez rides for the first time in 11 starts, and I’m confident Saez will do the right thing and put his mount right on the lead from post 1. Wire to wire.

Queen’s Plate

Halo Again stayed nine furlongs in his second career start, making me fairly confident he will stay 10 furlongs on Saturday in the Queen’s Plate.

That second start was a proving ground, with Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen seeing how this Ontario-bred handled Woodbine’s synthetic surface, and when Halo Again won, the Queen's Plate became the focus. There’s no way the Asmussen barn went hard with this horse over the winter, and he comes into this third race off a layoff with a good prep run in the Plate Trial putting him in position to hit a peak on the big day. The morning-line price, 5-1, feels fair enough.