Weekend GamePlan for Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019: Picks for Runhappy Turf Sprint, Ladies Sprint, and Jockey Club Derby

The weekend following the conclusion of the Del Mar and Saratoga meetings could be a flat spot on the racing calendar, but thanks to Kentucky Downs, it’s not. There are full fields in every race Saturday over the undulating Franklin, Ky., course, which offers some of the most fascinating (and challenging) racing in North America.

It’s also Super Derby Day at Louisiana Downs, though I could find nothing to play in the headliner there. Whatever remains of Hurricane Dorian figures to make for a wet first Saturday of the Belmont Park meeting, which complicates the turf races on the card. Still, I’ll try to make something of $1 million Jockey Club Derby Invitational while leaving the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational and Grand Prix American Jockey Club Invitational alone.

Runhappy Turf Sprint

The six-furlong Runhappy Turf Sprint features an Eclipse Award winner, Stormy Liberal, and Imprimis, who was the fastest grass sprinter in North America early this year. Maybe he still is, but Imprimis will be stretched by six furlongs on a course that plays longer than the raw distances, while Stormy Liberal’s memorable 2018 campaign might have exacted a toll.

Trainer Rusty Arnold holds a strong hand in this race, and while the Arnold-trained Leinster comes off a strong win in the Troy at Saratoga, and might not bounce as a relatively fresh horse, I’ll try Arnold’s other entrant, Totally Boss.

Totally Boss was all right last year as a 3-year-old as Arnold let him develop, and has improved several lengths this year at age 4. He’d have made a clean sweep through his allowance conditions this season with better luck in a narrow Churchill Downs loss to Om, and his late move last out at Ellis, once he got clear, looked about as flashy as it gets. Totally Boss, if anything, should run better at six furlongs than in the shorter sprints, and the false homestretch/real homestretch configuration of the Kentucky Downs course gives him plenty of time to find his best stride – which is really, really fast.

Ladies Sprint

Raven’s Lady’s three races earlier this year while based with a West Coast trainer were forgettable – and so I’ll forget them, focusing on her overseas form and her most recent start. In Europe, Raven’s Lady was a high-level sprinter, winning as high as the Group 2 level in Germany, where she showed her best racing left-handed and on the sort of faster ground she’ll find again Saturday.

Switched to the Florida stable of Patrick Biancone, Raven’s Lady in her last start turned in easily her strongest races since coming to America. The far-turn move she made to hit the front past the quarter pole looks as impressive on film as it does on paper, and she comfortably finished off that group while racing over a two-turn trip one could imagine is a little farther than ideal. She’s back to a longer one-turn race, and the undulating, Euro-style Kentucky Downs course holds no mysteries for this filly. While she’s very unlikely to go postward as high as her morning line price of 15-1, she is likely to be undervalued in a field lacking standouts.

Jockey Club Derby Invitational

Frankly, the Europeans in this 1 1/2-mile 3-year-old turf race, headed by Spanish Mission, don’t do a whole lot for me. Digital Age’s form has held solid all year and he’s a high-level performer, but there have to be doubts that this longer distance enhances his chances. The 12-furlong trip does appear to play to Henley’s Joy, who won the Belmont Derby Invitational over this course going 10 furlongs and had little chance last out at Saratoga in a race that shaped toward forwardly placed horses. Henley’s Joy holds some appeal but A Thread of Blue can lead all the way here and would offer value at a price close to his listed 4-1 odds.

Yes, A Thread of Blue got the best of things leading through a moderate pace last out in the nine-furlong Saratoga Derby Invitational, but what impressed me was how relaxed he was rating along on the lead. Look carefully and you’ll see he’d turned back Digital Age several strides before the finish and was pulling away again at the finish. There’s nothing more dangerous in American racing than rateable speed, and A Thread of Blue has every chance to control the tempo again here. Go through the female side of his family and find layers of turf stamina influences, and if A Thread of Blue will switch off on the lead, he can win his second straight million-dollar race.