Weekend GamePlan for Saturday, May 23, 2020: Plays for Matt Winn, Daytona, and Blame stakes

It took until the fourth Saturday in May, but finally there is serious multi-stakes action at Churchill Downs.

The Matt Winn is the only graded stakes at Churchill, but the entire stakes menu there Saturday is deep and playable. Dunbar Road will be a short price making her 4-year-old debut in the Shawnee Stakes, while Maxfield returns from a long layoff in the Matt Winn and Owendale, one of the better 3-year-olds of 2019, races for the first time at 4 in the Blame.

At Santa Anita, United and Rockemperor look too obvious in the Charlie Whittingham, a race devoid of early pace. I’ll pass on that one but have a horse for Santa Anita’s other stakes race, the Daytona, and two plays among the Churchill stakes.

:: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter

Matt Winn

Maybe Maxfield just is too much horse for this group. His debut win came over the Churchill surface, and Maxfield practiced very safe social distancing on Gouverneur Morris and Enforceable in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, quickly opening up daylight on them. Gouverneur Morris and Enforceable don’t sit at the head of their class, but they’re both capable colts.

But . . . there are buts. An ankle chip knocked Maxfield out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he didn’t post his first workout of the year until Feb. 27. His two speed figures are merely aligned with, not superior to, the higher numbers in this race, he has a poor outside draw, and he’s 5-2 on the morning line. Synthesize all the information and he’s a favorite to respect but challenge.

Major Fed has an even worse draw and lower figures than Maxfield, and while the parade-style race shape that was the Louisiana Derby worked against him, Major Fed did go flat the final furlong after an encouraging move around the far turn. Two other relatively short prices lack much appeal: Attachment Rate appears to have plateaued, while Ny Traffic got beneficial race flows in his two Fair Grounds races.

Pneumatic is worth a long look in his stakes debut after a key-race sprint debut score and a professional route allowance win, but at three times the price I’ll play Mystic Guide.

Of the two Godolphin runners entered, Mystic Guide more than Maxfield has the truly elite pedigree, being a son of multiple Grade 1 winner Music Note. He’s been highly regarded from the start, as you can see from his debut odds, and after simply running out of ground while closing hard in that sprint, he was a smooth, easy winner in his two-turn second start. Racing with a determined, low-to-the-ground action, he came home with plenty left while ridden as much the best, sacrificing ground loss for a clean trip in the March 21 performance. Mystic Guide’s Fair Hill work pattern for this suggests he could improve as much from start 2 to start 3 as he did last time. A favorable ground-saving trip in the first flight behind three major pace players is easy to envision with underrated Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons again.

:: Want to get your Past Performances for free? Click to learn more.

Daytona

I’m convinced that Stubbins is going to blow past this solid group of turf sprinters in his 2020 debut, and with Cistron and Stubbins’s stablemate Wildman Jack taking money, I’m looking for a decent price.

Stubbins did get a good setup winning at Keeneland in October, but Leinster and Imprimis, second and third in that race, rate higher than any of these opponents. At five furlongs, the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint was always going to be slightly too short for Stubbins, and he was fully undone when forced to await room at the top of the stretch. Watch what happens when he’s clear – whoosh! He covered the last furlong in 10.18 seconds, and with the additional half-furlong here as well as softer competition, Stubbins has a great chance at a winning seasonal debut.

Blame

Mr. Money ran out of gas going nine furlongs in the Pennsylvania Derby, was over the top in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and has multiple potential excuses for his last-start comeback run at Oaklawn. So, to me, the key portion of Mr. Money’s form is the four-race win streak between March and August, which includes two Churchill victories, one at this one-turn-mile configuration.

Post 13 with so much straightaway to the turn is more positive than negative, and there are enough capable entrants that Mr. Money, while he figures to get bet, should offer a playable price.