Weekend Gameplan for Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021: Picks for the Unusual Heat Turf Classic, Fire Plug, and Louisiana

Racing is full of hackneyed but essentially useful sayings like, “A good horse can come from anywhere,” a phrase made manifest in a couple races under discission in this space.

Good horses also come from most obvious places, such as the Juddmonte Farms operation of recently deceased Khalid Abdullah, which sends out two favorites difficult to oppose Saturday at Fair Grounds, the center of national racing attention with a six-stakes card.

The Juddmonte homebred Mandaloun goes in the headliner, the Lecomte Stakes, and is absolutely unplayable as a likely favorite whose speed figures don’t yet stand out, a colt who never has raced around two turns nor in stakes competition. Now, trainer Brad Cox, who hit a 32 percent graded-stakes clip on volume in 2020, seems to love this colt, who, through imposing physical presence, has caught the eye of rival horsemen during morning training. Sun Path is the Juddmonte/Cox runner for the Silverbulletday for 3-year-old fillies. She’s already aced a two-turn test and should be slightly better value – if you like her – with at least Souper Sensational taking some betting.

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One race at Fair Grounds made the list of three this week, but let’s start at Santa Anita and Laurel.

Unusual Heat Turf Classic

I don’t really agree with the line in this race, which has too many horses bunched in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, and think Ward ‘n Jerry, dropping from three graded stakes, second at 2-1 in this race a year ago, and getting Flavien Prat, will emerge as the solid favorite. Funny thing about Ward ‘n Jerry – his Beyer Speed Figures consistently peak at 1 1/2-mile races, and at this 1 1/8-mile trip he doesn’t hit the same level.

Also noted in this Cal-bred turf contest is the apparent surplus of pace players, which could help a closer like Ward ‘n Jerry, but I think he lacks the fast-twitchiness to get home.

The horse with the best late turn of foot might be Brandonthebartender, who fits the “good horse from anywhere” trope by virtue of his start two races ago in a 1,000-yard mixed-breed “hook” race at Los Alamitos. Make no mistake – the present iteration of 8-year-old Brandonthebartender can produce a contending run at this nine-furlong trip, too, and he was spun ridiculously wide before closing fastest last out in a six-furlong Santa Anita turf dash. Umberto Rispoli gains the mount and I trust him to properly time his mount’s run, which is going to be everything in terms of his win chance.

Still, I gave the nod to North County Guy, a 6-year-old gelding who was hapless enough early in his career that he was claimed for $8,000 in July 2018. North County Guy, like Brandonthebartender, looked more sprinter-miler at one point, and though he has stayed as far as 11 furlongs with some success, I think he just was asked to run too far in a disappointing last race going 1 1/2 miles. The gelding has gotten a nice break with a very encouraging work pattern into this and ought to get a good trip from the second flight.

Fire Plug

Charles Town feels almost like its own little racing ecosystem, a West Virginia bullring track that doesn’t cross-pollinate the Mid-Atlantic circuit as much as other venues. But some good West Virginia-breds, most of them by leading stallion Fibre Sonde, can emerge from Charles Town, and Penguin Power might be just such a horse.

Jeff Runco, who ships horses outside West Virginia with a purpose, trains Penguin Power, who became so adept at Charles Town-style racing, especially in two-turn, seven-furlong starts, that he won eight of nine in 2020. Penguin Power’s first 17 starts came at Charles Town, but Runco decided to let him see the wider world this winter: Dec. 26, off a 10-week break, Penguin Power raced in the $100,000 Dave’s Friend, a six-furlong race at Laurel, and performed with aplomb.

From his Charles Town form, I wouldn’t have guessed Penguin Power could go fast enough to lead in an open sprint at Laurel, but he did, setting a strong pace (and looking fluid doing it) before appearing to weary late, even then fighting on for an admirable third behind two closers. The showing seemed especially encouraging considering Penguin Power’s deep familiarity with the rhythm of bullring racing and lack of any starts on a full-sized oval like Laurel’s. Considering that, and the break he had into the Dave’s Friend, I expect at least minor improvement Saturday, which should be enough to handle this group.

Louisiana

Four-year-old Sonneman somewhat quietly is on the rise, and he can win the Grade 3, $125,000 Louisiana Stakes at Fair Grounds, perhaps at odds higher than his 4-1 morning line.

The line has Sonneman’s Steve Asmussen-trained stablemate Silver Prospector at 5-1, but with Ricardo Santana Jr. staying aboard the latter, who comes out of the Grade 1 Clark, where he was drawn very wide and stuck outside, I’d expect Silver Prospector to be the shorter price.

Since he won the Louisiana Derby last spring, and has very popular connections, Wells Bayou projects as a possible favorite here – and a vulnerable one, too, without any real edge on several rivals while making his first start in eighth months.

Asmussen made two associated points regarding having two entrants here. First, Silver Prospector has the $600,000 Razorback on Feb. 13 at Oaklawn as a near-term goal. And second, that Santana, who also has been riding Sonneman, is on Silver Prospector because Santana is Oaklawn-based and would be riding that horse this winter and spring while Sonneman stays in New Orleans.

Asmussen is a real master at using races to get horses to peak at the right time, and with a much richer purse sitting a month away, I see no way Silver Prospector is coming with his “A” game Saturday.

Sonneman, on the other hand, has gotten himself into a smooth pattern over the last few months and is a well-bred entire 4-year-old who hasn’t yet won a stakes race. There’s more incentive to deliver a top performance, and I do expect improvement off the Dec. 19 Tenacious, where he ran well splitting horses at the furlong grounds and making a nice run at Grade 1-class Maxfield. Dreaming Big, the massive, impressive colt who beat Sonneman at Keeneland, might not be well known but is talented. And in the Churchill allowance win two back, Sonneman showed he has taken his lessons well and learned to put together a complete race. I think we see one of those, as well as a new career top, in the Louisiana.