Weekend GamePlan for Saturday, Feb. 8, 2020: Picks for Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Stakes, Suwannee River Stakes

On Saturday, Whitmore makes his 2020 debut at Oaklawn Park as a vulnerable chalk, there’s an interesting matchup between 3-year-old fillies Alms and Pass the Plate at Fair Grounds, and a potentially really nice 3-year-old filly in Venetian Harbor racing in the Las Virgenes, one of two Santa Anita stakes. All well and good, but front and center in North American stakes action Saturday sits Tampa Bay Downs.

The best horse on Tampa Bay’s multi-stakes card is the wonderful Got Stormy, who makes her 5-year-old bow as an odds-on favorite in the Endeavor Stakes. That race is a pass, as is the Suncoast for 3-year-old fillies, though I view the two shortest prices on the morning line, Comical and Motu, as eminently beatable. This edition of Weekend GamePlan will take swings at two other Tampa piñatas and wander across the state to Gulfstream, where a new friend runs in the Suwanee River.

:: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter

Sam Davis Stakes

Independence Hall has won all three of his starts, and his rude treatment of eight rivals in the Nov. 3 Nashua Stakes ranked near the top of individual 2-year-old performances during 2019. But Independence Hall followed that performance with a far more pedestrian victory in the Jerome Stakes, and even three races into his career, he continues making mistakes. He broke poorly in the Jerome, was difficult to settle, and raced somewhat erratically through the homestretch, and I’m just not sure he has the overwhelming raw ability to do things wrong and negotiate two turns for the first time Saturday at Tampa. Independence Hall is likely to go forward and find himself in a pace battle with Premier Star, who’s the 3-1 morning-line second choice behind heavily favored Independence Hall.

Premier Star seems even less an appealing here in his route debut than the chalk, with his homestretch run at Gulfstream last time less than scintillating. In trying to beat both horses, I looked to Sole Volante and Ajaaweed.

Sole Volante has continued doing his major morning work on turf even after switching to dirt, to encouraging affect, running third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man. The pedigree clearly points to grass, and I’m not convinced he’s fully a dirt horse. His sharp turn move to reach contention smoothed into a more one-paced final three-sixteenths of a mile in the Mucho Macho Man, and though Sole Volante galloped out well enough, I think his future lies on grass.

That leaves Ajaaweed, whose most recent morning workout, from the look of online video, was his strongest drill this winter. Ajaaweed finished second Dec. 7 in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. The Remsen was no great shakes, and Shotski, its winner, to some extent got exposed finishing second in the Withers last Saturday. But where Shotski rode a speed bias through a modest pace to Remsen glory, Ajaaweed ran easily the best race among the losers, gaining rapidly through the final furlong. His Belmont maiden win was eye catching, his fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity not a true billing, and Ajaaweed, on pedigree, appearance, and past performance cycle, is supposed to be better at age 3 than 2.

Tampa Bay Stakes

Real Story sports an ugly last-out running line from the Shadwell Turf Mile, a race run Oct. 5, and among the 14th-place finish, a layoff, and the presence of some capable competition (March to the Arch, Caribou Club, Hembree), there’s hope he goes off higher than his 4-1 morning-line odds.

Real Story won a humdrum renewal of the American Derby as a 3-year-old of 2018, had a long layoff into his 2019 debut, and steadily built up to some pretty strong summer middle-distance turf form last year. He clearly struggled over a tricky Keeneland course in the Shadwell, and between the progressive two seasons of racing and the very encouraging recent work pattern, I see a horse ready to find another level at age 5. He wants to go forward but isn’t speed crazy, and the outside draw can help him sit off a rival if required. This distance, even more than a mile, suits him.

Suwannee River

There aren’t enough competitive-looking horses here to give Magic Star much value boost, but surely Starship Jubilee will be favored over her. I liked Magic Star when she won the Marshua’s River last time and I like her at least as well here. She raced greenly in the Marshua’s River, a race she might have needed following a layoff, swapping leads several times in the stretch, and, to my eye, was far more superior than her half-length margin of victory. She has an electric turn of foot and should comfortably see out this nine-furlong trip.