Weekend GamePlan for Saturday, August 10, 2019: Picks for Beverly D., Pucker Up Stakes, Nellie Mae Cox Stakes

The Arlington Million isn’t what it once was, in great part because a million dollars doesn’t mean what it once did, but Arlington nevertheless occupies the center of the North American racing world Saturday. Bricks and Mortar is a formidable favorite in the main event and is likely to give Chad Brown his third Million win in a row, and barring bad luck, it’s difficult to see him losing. It’s Brown versus Aidan O’Brien in all three Grade 1 stakes, and I favor the O’Brien-trained Never No More in the Secretariat, cut back to one mile this year.

Two-year-old stakes at Del Mar and Saratoga, the Best Pal and the Saratoga Special, came up on the light side, and Uni, the horse I like best in the Grade 1 Fourstardave, won’t be the right price to play in that big field.

Beverly D.

Sistercharlie ranks as one of the top female grass horses, if not just grass horses, in North America during the last decade. She’s fabulous and delivered a scintillating comeback in the Grade 1 Diana last month, burying two strong Brown-trained stablemates in Rushing Fall and the now-sidelined Homerique.

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But do consider how Sistercharlie got to that race. Her connections initially targeted an April comeback race for Sistercharlie, but a setback pushed her return to summer, and Brown, after toying with the New York Stakes in June, eventually decided to train to the Diana. It takes some hard morning work to get a horse to run like Sistercharlie did first time back, and even a special animal like this mare almost has to take some sort of step back in the weeks following such a performance. Sistercharlie’s low-water mark of 2018 came in her second start, and while I expect a competitive showing Saturday, the sheen of invulnerability around this horse might be misplaced.

That’s in great part because Fleeting seems such a strong opponent. It’s true, only one 3-year-old ever has won the Beverly D., but outside Sistercharlie this is one of the race’s softer renewals. There’s nothing soft about Fleeting. Her Oaks at Epsom not only produced a strong third-place finish, but Fleeting, already traveling strongly into contention, got stuck in a box a furlong and a half out that compromised her placing, and she was coming late. Star Catcher, who has turned into an excellent filly, got first run on Fleeting in both the Ribblesdale and the Irish Oaks, and Fleeting just needed a few more yards in that last race to get up. The presence of Thais, a pacemaker for Sistercharlie, ought to give Fleeting the fair fractions up front to help her sustained rally.

Pucker Up

The Arlington morning line throughout this card is suspect, and I don’t really expect to see 5-1 on Art of Almost, but I do expect a fair price because Art of Almost is a near-standout here and won’t be bet like it. This is a robust, powerful, good-feeling filly who has struggled with switching off early in her races, but she’s gotten better at that with every start, and jockey Alan Garcia appeared to fit her well in a pair of Woodbine rides.

Garcia wasn’t aboard when Art of Almost finished third last out in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly, a truly excellent performance from a 3-year-old filly facing tough older horses. Granted, Art of Almost was getting 11 pounds from her elders, but she finished just about as fast as Holy Helena, who on her day is a lower-rung Grade 1 performer in female-restricted races. Art of Almost’s post-Dance Smartly work pattern strongly encourages, as well.

Nellie Mae Cox

At a fair price, Fionnbharr can win the $100,000 Nellie Mae Cox, a Virginia-bred or -sired turf mile at Colonial Downs. This filly hasn’t taken a lick of betting in her three-start career but has run somewhere between creditable and good in all those starts. She strode out very nicely through the wire in her maiden win two back, and on a day when no one could make up any ground on the Laurel turf course, it was she who finished best behind wire-to-wire winner Karama in the $100,000 Stormy Blues last out.

It’s sprint-sprint-route for Fionnbharr and perhaps worth noting that her dam, Embarr, whose only foal to race is this filly (and who had the same trainer), went sprint-sprint-sprint-route to start her career, that route race being the one-mile Brookmeade Stakes over the Colonial grass course.