Weekend Gameplan for Saturday, Aug. 15, 2020: Picks for the Alabama, Saratoga Derby, and King Edward
Let’s briefly litigate the past before trying to predict the future.
Tiz the Law’s Runhappy Travers win last weekend seemed strangely under-appreciated. In the weekly NTRA Top 10 poll that comes out every Monday, Tiz the Law ranked only sixth when lumped in with older horses.
The way Tiz the Law controlled the Travers, the ease with which he made the front, and the degree of superiority he demonstrated against decent opposition was extremely high-level stuff. This colt is showing the energy of a horse one or two months into a campaign, not seven. Bring on the Derby.
Gamine, Tiz the Law’s 3-year-old filly counterpart, remains a horse operating more on raw ability than the polished racehorse Tiz the Law has become. She’s still incredible. Her degree of favoritism in the Oaks might come clearer after one of this weekend’s races under discussion, the Alabama.
Alabama
Perhaps picking at Swiss Skydiver’s pedigree is stupid at this point. She’s already outrun her biological origins and might best be viewed through the lens of individualized ability.
Yet the Alabama’s 10-furlong trip might expose distance limitations. Granted, Swiss Skydiver set a strong pace in the Blue Grass, and yes, the only horse to beat her, Art Collector, is second favorite for the Derby. But Swiss Skydiver seemed fairly gassed at the Blue Grass finish, and let’s keep in mind she has been going steadily now since mid-November. The filly doesn’t require the lead, but she is going to come out running and might get hooked into Crystal Ball’s strong pace.
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Spice Is Nice will easily be second choice in the Alabama, and on pedigree, she is far better suited to 1 1/4 miles than the favorite. There are hints Spice Is Nice has the upside to win this race, too, but while both her Belmont comeback win and recent training video were encouraging, they didn’t leave me with the sense that Spice Is Nice definitely has another level to find. She went the wrong way this winter after her debut win, and it’s at least worth noting Spice Is Nice only worked back 27 days after her Belmont race.
In a vacuum, Harvey’s Lil Goil might not be able to beat Swiss Skydiver, but I’ll give her a shot at the price, with 1 1/4 miles the potential equalizer. I’m drawing a line through the Fantasy, where everything went wrong, and in so doing, see a filly with steadily progressive performance whose last-out, nine-furlong turf-stakes score could serve as a strong point of departure for a career peak. Look for Harvey’s Lil Goil to get a trip similar to the one she pulled in the Busanda. Her work and race pattern suggest a filly ready to show her best – we’ll see if that proves good enough.
Saratoga Derby Invitational
Decorated Invader is a fine, fine colt, versatile and consistent, and his Pennine Ridge really was a tour de force. Taking all that into account, I was surprised at how hard he seemed to work to win the Hall of Fame last out. Yes, Decorated Invader was going away in the final strides, but to get to that point, he was hard ridden. Granted, no horse in this race has a better pedigree to stretch out to 1 3/16 miles, and the recent work I saw showed Decorated Invader traveling strongly, but Colonel Liam can post a mild upset in the Saratoga Derby.
Colonel Liam also was hard ridden in upper stretch last out, but when he hit his best stride, he impressed me more than Decorated Invader in the Hall of Fame. His final furlong in that win over older horses was his best furlong, and I loved the way he looked flashing across the finish with his ears up. The race marked Colonel Liam’s turf debut, and in only his fourth start, Colonel Liam, as fast as he ran last time, can improve. He dominated No Words, who runs here, in a recent work and should stay the trip with Get Smokin providing a target into the homestretch.
King Edward
I considered taking the Mark Casse-trained bomber Dream Maker, and will use him in exotics in hopes that the move to turf brings forth all the latent talent not yet realized, but the Casse-trained March to the Arch might get slightly overlooked and stands a strong chance of winning the King Edward. The trip west for the Shoemaker was a dud, but March to the Arch got back toward his better form – without getting all the way there – last out at Churchill and ought to get a dream setup closing into a strong, contested pace. Delaware, the other clear closer, could be a shorter price than March to the Arch, but was much closer to finishing fifth July 5 at Belmont than he was to winning.