Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes
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Now we’re talking. Headed by Keeneland’s blockbuster card, and with multi-stakes programs at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, we have before us the best Saturday of racing so far this year.
At Keeneland, Pleasant Passage in the Appalachian and Run Classic in the Commonwealth just missed the cut here. And at Santa Anita, Awake At Midnyte trying her first turf sprint in the Monrovia held appeal. But let’s just focus on a trio of Kentucky Derby preps.
Wood Memorial
The Wood is a Grade 2, while the Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby are Grade 1s, but the Grade A play is Slip Mahoney in New York.
It’s Slip Mahoney’s Brad Cox-trained stablemate, Hit Show, who’s the 5-2 favorite on the astute David Aragona’s morning line. Hit Show has post 13 with a short run to the first turn. His speed figure from the Withers came back a salty 95, but how strong was that showing? Arctic Arrogance runs back here but, to me, wants no part of 1 1/8 miles, and he was the only horse Hit Show had to run down in a soft, soft heat. No thanks.
I like lightly raced maidens in stakes, but not as the second choice drawn on the rail in a big field: Dreamlike has encountered strong rivals losing twice to begin his career but lose he did. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a poor strike rate with 2- and 3-year-olds adding blinkers in dirt-route stakes. His other maiden, Crupi, is the very definition of mercurial: Who knows what to expect.
Slip Mahoney gamely beat Crupi in a Jan. 21 maiden race at Aqueduct, where Slip Mahoney has raced throughout his four-start career. Crupi, as usual, missed the break, but Slip Mahoney was stuck inside disputing a strong pace. He ran very well to win.
Tapit Trice is the 5-2 Blue Grass favorite, and on Dec. 17, Slip Mahoney gave him all he wanted in a one-turn mile where Tapit Trice had a superior outside run. The Gotham? No idea how a horse with pace fell so far behind. Slip Mahoney finally got in gear around the turn, was forced far, far out into the track turning for home, and finished fastest – the race’s top performance for my money. The pedigree is shouting out two turns, which Slip Mahoney gets for the first time, presumably at a playable price.
Santa Anita Derby
Geaux Rocket Ride wings his left front leg a bit. He carries his head much higher than ideal. Don’t care – this colt really can run.
His debut win sprinting dazzled, and it takes a special talent to run as well as he did jumping from a maiden race to Grade 2 stakes while going sprint to route in a second career start.
Geaux Rocket Ride got triple teamed in the San Felipe. Fort Bragg made an early move past the three-furlong pole to put pace-pressing Geaux Rocket Ride in tight, with pacesetting Hejazi on his inside. Hejazi floated out into Geaux Rocket Ride’s path turning into the homestretch, forcing Flavien Prat on Geaux Rocket Ride to dive down toward the rail. Prat already had gotten to work on his mount, and Geaux Rocket Ride had every right to fold his tent; instead, once clear, he finished just as well as perfect-trip winner Practical Move. Practical Move, Fort Bragg, and Hejazi all came out of the same barn – just sayin’.
Geaux Rocket Ride has come back with some long, strong works and clearly has the greatest upside on the day.
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Blue Grass Stakes
Tapit Trice gets a lot of love for a horse who had to be ridden for a half-mile to win what appeared to be a very modest renewal of the Tampa Derby. His top Beyer Speed Figure came while racing on Lasix, as did that of second-choice Verifying.
Verifying at least has speed, and unlike Tapit Trice found a lot of trouble in his most recent start. I prefer Verifying between the two, but the Blue Grass looks ripe for an upset.
Mendelssohns March needs to run a lot faster to contend, but twice-started 3-year-olds who clearly have talent are capable of making the kind of forward move he requires. He overcame slop and heavy turn traffic to sharply win his dirt debut last out, and I’ll trust Brian Hernandez Jr. to get some position from post 11. The time to jump on Kenny McPeek-trained stakes runners is when no one else is doing so.
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