Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Virginia Derby, San Simeon, Sandy Bottom
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Pretty slim stakes pickings Saturday, which is why Churchill Downs chose this mid-March date for its revamped Virginia Derby, switched last year from a late-summer turf race to a one-turn, nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep. Whether the race becomes more than a nominal prep remains to be seen, but a winner still pays the same.
Virginia Derby
A strong plurality of bettors figure to land on Buetane, a horse no more than meh for me. Buetane, given his speed and the circumstances, will come out running from his rail draw, probably try to lead and dictate terms. Does he want to go this far? The San Vicente form isn’t aging well.
Confessional, who is first-time blinkers, probably is the second choice. He is a rebound candidate after his Sam Davis dud. But he’s also the horse most likely to go forward and make Buetane work.
Having watched his blinkered breeze March 7 at Payson, where he went to the pole very aggressively and kept that posture throughout the drill, it’s difficult to imagine Confessional not showing a lot of speed.
Incredibolt’s 3-year-old debut looked too bad to be true, but his two Kentucky wins last fall look less impressive today than they did 10 weeks ago.
High Camp’s two starts were . . . fine? Solid, nothing special, and High Camp needs to race more professionally than last out when he lost focus and position midway around the far turn.
I’ll hope for a pace meltdown and a better trip for the maiden Ocelli, who shouldn’t come down much from his 15-1 morning line.
Ocelli has done some decent stuff throughout his career, and I think tough trips and strong competition obscure the boost that blinkers provided. Two back at Fair Grounds, he lost ground from a wide draw in a race won by Reagan’s Honor, who came right back in February with an even sharper allowance score. Runner-up Kelz was 86-1 but validated his performance with another good one when second again Feb. 14.
Ocelli’s Sam Davis trip was lousy – gave him no chance. The jockey appeared indecisive on the backstretch while stuck out wide and for some reason decided to go with a four-wide, uncovered blitz into the far turn. Unsurprisingly, that didn’t end well, but do note that Ocelli, who shows some greenness in the homestretch, still was staying on at the sixteenth pole.
No video, but a very lively half-mile breeze in his first post-Sam Davis work, and Ocelli could run his way into the Kentucky Derby while simultaneously departing the maiden ranks.
San Simeon
I like Seal Team here despite his long layoff and a lack of evidence that the horse can handle a sprint distance.
Seal Team has raced around one turn one time, a decent second going five furlongs at Del Mar in his debut, and his lone stakes win came over 1 1/8 miles in the 2023 Twilight Derby. Six-year-old Seal Team hasn’t started since May 26 – his only race during 2025 – and this is the third time he’s gone on an extended break.
None of that bothers me. Watching this horse’s races, and – even more so – watching his workouts this winter, I think he has a chance to hit peak form as a one-run closing sprinter. All that missed time means this is a mature 6-year-old without many miles on the odometer – exactly how he has looked in the 2026 workout video, which I found very eye-catching.
Would it be helpful if there was a little more speed signed on for the San Simeon? Sure, but I’m still on the Seal Team.
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Sandy Bottom (1st division)
Colonial split this race, and it still came up as interesting as anything on the card.
I’m sold on Chasten in the first division (race 6), and while she rallied from last winning around two turns at Fair Grounds in her most recent start in January, I like the filly cutting back to a one-turn mile.
While Chasten won her debut as an autumn 2-year-old, she lacked precocity. I think she always was meant to be a 4-year-old, and the way she finished her long-layoff comeback Jan. 10 supports that theory.
Chasten need not fall as far back as she did at Fair Grounds, where an awkward start kept her from obtaining a better position. No video, but a very appealing Payson work pattern since her comeback, and the guess is that connections circled this race quite some time ago.
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