Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Turf Dash, Gulfstream Park Sprint, Heavenly Prize

The Saudi Cup fell apart and a wintry blast moved the Rebel Stakes back a day. This Saturday’s racing does not look like it did a couple weeks ago.

Granted, the matchup between Forever Young and the great Romantic Warrior in the world’s richest race is must-see viewing. But imagine if Sierra Leone, Laurel River, Locked, and White Abarrio showed up, as at one point seemed possible.

We’re left picking through the remains of Saturday’s stakes schedule.

Turf Dash

This looks like the race of the day, matching Our Shot, who finished off his 2024 campaign in fiery form, and South African import Isivunguvungu. The morning line has Our Shot 6-5 to Isivunguvungu’s 3-1, but their prices should be closer than that.

Isivunguvungu, career to career, rates the stronger chance and did have costly trouble in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He might prove too good for this bunch – but I wonder.

I touted Isivunguvungu in his North American debut at Colonial Downs but expected him to win more decisively. Moreover, Daily Racing Form’s David Grening reported that Isivunguvungu got sick after the Breeders’ Cup, and Saturday’s start is a prep for the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. And, finally, Isivunguvungu has an outside post that could lead to ground loss.

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As for Our Shot, the 6-year-old’s last two races were the best of a 19-start career, and as he returns from a layoff approaching five months, I’ll guess he regresses to his mean.

American Monarch might be 7 but is not nearly as exposed on turf as Our Shot, and I’ll hope he can get home at more appealing odds.

American Monarch’s early career grass starts came routing, and this is a sprinter. He turned in an encouraging performance in his first turf sprint, the Elusive Quality nearly three years ago, and might not have been at his physical best for that. American Monarch didn’t so much as post a timed workout for 14 months after the start.

In his second turf sprint about nine months ago he finished with good energy (11.55-second final furlong) when second to a very sharp Dancing Buck. The Payson work pattern for trainer Bill Mott looks strong. American Monarch is coming back ready.

Gulfstream Park Sprint

Nakatomi appears to be the 500-pound gorilla in the Gulfstream feature. If only we had evidence that he might be vulnerable returning from a winter break following a start in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint . . . oh, wait, the horse finished third at even money in the Pelican Stakes about a year ago.

Nakatomi at his best hits Grade 1 class, no doubt, but he’s not the sort of horse who routinely produces peak performances. His connections have their eye on the Dubai Golden Shaheen, and Nakatomi surely is not meant to be at his best Saturday.

Gordian Knot interests me at the expected price and as an off-pace alternative to Nakatomi in a race that could unfold at a strong tempo.

It’s quite strange, these trainer changes from Guadalupe Preciado to Jamie Ness and now to Todd Pletcher. Going back, Gordian Knot won five of his first seven starts and, stepped up in class to the Grade 2 Gallant Bob, finished a decent third with a less-than-ideal trip.

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His 2024 campaign mainly sputtered but for one start, the De Francis Dash, where Gordian Knot easily came home fastest and looked pretty good doing it. His Palm Beach Downs work pattern is impeccable, and video of a few drills looked encouraging. A breakout score would Knot surprise.

Heavenly Prize

Perhaps Weigh the Risks truly has found a home on dirt and will continue rising through the stakes ranks for her major league connections. Neither of her dirt wins, however, particularly impressed me, and Manny Franco, in addition to giving his mount a perfect ground-saving trip, rode the hair off Weigh the Risks asking her to pull clear of a fairly limited rival last out.

Aussie Girl exits a decent effort at the Grade 1 level and clearly classes up with this group, and I’ll guess that she transfers her turf form to dirt. She worked twice on dirt last spring at Keeneland, and video of one of those drills suggests the filly gets over the surface decently enough. She’s also drawn on the outside and can keep clear of the kickback that often derails a turf-to-dirt move.

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