Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Starlet, Mistletoe, Wait a While

Weekend Gameplan has been cranking out the winners this fall despite some puzzling tactics such as those deployed with Clutch Hitter in the Hollywood Derby last weekend. Personal tactics Saturday evening: An early nap before late-night participation in the Hong Kong International Races.

In a less exhausting window of time Saturday afternoon, a couple decent-priced horses to play on Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds – Norah G in the Lassie, Touchuponastar in the Classic. Hot Peppers just failed to make the cut here as a wire-to-wire prospect in the Lasix-less (looking at you, Smash Ticket) Garland of Roses at Aqueduct.

Starlet

Yes, they are calling this a Grade 1, same as the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Seven runners, zero stakes winners of any sort, does not feel like a Grade 1.

This copy was filed before the Los Alamitos morning line came out, but I have no illusions regarding the price on Faiza. Figure she’ll be the favorite, which is unfortunate, but with Blessed Touch and to a lesser extent Uncontrollable taking action, Faiza could reach a playable price if, like I do, you think she’s going to win.

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Faiza was 4-5 in her career debut and ran like it, cruising to a geared-down victory over a filly named Lily Poo, who returned Dec. 3 to win a maiden special weight with a 76 Beyer. Faiza had ample sprint speed on the day but showed the body type and stride rhythm of a route horse, a notion that gained more traction watching her recent workouts.

Faiza on Nov. 26 was placed a couple lengths behind her workmate, 3-year-old maiden American Refugee, before besting her before the wire and galloping out well in front. On Dec. 2, Faiza broke off nearly 10 lengths behind American Refugee, catching her before the wire, again galloping out in front.

This is a good sign, not just that Faiza will get 1 1/16 miles on Saturday, but that the plan is to reserve her several lengths behind what figures to be a strong pace. Faiza’s rail-drawn stablemate with speed, Doinitthehardway, won’t let Blessed Touch get an easy lead, and Faiza figures to make it two wins from two starts while adding a quick Grade 1 to her résumé.

Mistletoe

The South American mare Didia, not currently on a work pattern, is the real female dirt-route star of the Ignacio Correas barn. Le Da Vida, the morning-line Mistletoe favorite, has gone 2 for 2 since being imported from Argentina, but I think the 90 Beyer Speed Figure from her last-start Keeneland win somewhat overrates her performance level and that she’s vulnerable at a short price. The Keeneland race, in my opinion, was soft; Le Da Vida merely had to hold serve to win.

Of the two shorter prices, I prefer Coach over Le Da Vida, especially if the track comes up wet. Coach gets Lasix again in the Mistletoe, which might be key to her form, and could make a clear lead from the rail over a surface where she notched two wet-track wins last winter.

Still, my play is neither of those. Ice Orchid could hit win odds higher than her 5-1 morning line and ought to offer Mistletoe value.

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It’s unjust that as a 3-year-old she carries the same weight as Coach and gives weight to Le Da Vida, but on the other hand, Ice Orchid has all the upside. Improving through last winter and spring at Oaklawn, she ran into an in-form Secret Oath when second in the Honeybee, missed the summer, had a nightmare trip in her Churchill comeback race, and had to overcome a walking pace winning at Keeneland.

The filly likely is better at two turns and cut back to a one-turn mile last out at Churchill, where she had to wait on a couple occasions while trapped along the rail, eventually finishing with good energy behind She Can’t Sing, a true horse for the Churchill course.

Wait a While

Here’s hoping the betting public rates Junipermarshmallow off the modest 54 Beyer from her debut win at Keeneland; she could be considerably better than that figure. Racing along the fence, Junipermarshmallow had a slightly stop-and-start trip, the rider at the three-sixteenths pole abandoning his quest to get through along the inside, tipping about six paths off the rail to find clear sailing. Junipermarshmallow quickened instantly, swapping to the wrong lead as soon as she hit the front – a sign of being green – before getting back on the right lead and winning well enough for me.

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