Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Soaring Softly, Daytona, Lady Slipper
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There’s likely to be saltier stakes action on Monday than Saturday this Memorial Day weekend. The Saturday stakes are few and far between, the fields entered in them light. How light? We’ve got to head to Shakopee, Minnesota, to find a play.
Soaring Softly
I’m not entirely sure how this six-horse field is going to be bet, but I think the morning line has things about right, with the bulk of the action going to Love Appeals. She is fine, but Love Appeals is no Love Reigns, the leading horse in this 3-year-old filly turf sprint division, and I believe she’s going to be overvalued off her most recent race.
That race was a first-level allowance in which Love Appeals got a favorable trip while facing just six foes. She quickened nicely and looked appealing enough visually, and if you want to argue the cutback to a sprint after two short routes to start her career unlocked a different filly, go for it. That still doesn’t mean Love Appeals offers any appeal with regard to value.
Lady Beth is even less palatable at 7-2 on the line. She beat an all right horse over Gulfstream’s Tapeta in her lone start, showing a solid turn of foot when asked to attack the pacesetter past the three-furlong pole. If she had lower-profile connections, she’d be three times the price.
I suppose it’s mildly interesting that Christophe Clement turns back Queen Picasso after her winning debut in a short route, but I don’t see a ton there, nor with Quarrel or Senior Prank.
American Apple deserves to be favored and would be the race’s clear value at anything near her listed odds of 4-1. The filly has three races – the Matron, the Limestone, and the Mamzelle – all good enough to win this. I’m excusing her Breeders’ Cup flop, and she was hurt by ground loss in two encouraging showings this year (the winner in each came through on the rail) while racing over a distance short of her best. By all appearances, American Apple has trained on at age 3.
Jockey Eric Cancel rode her forwardly in her New York win last fall, and in a race that appears void of pace, Cancel ought to have his mount on the lead or just off it.
Daytona
I’m betting the Daytona comes down almost entirely to trip, and Burnin Turf is set to get the best one.
Burnin Turf is a 7-year-old, but it was only five starts ago connections cut him back to turf sprints, which considerably raised his performance level. He was third in this race a year ago after breaking from post 1 and endured a somewhat tougher journey than in turf-sprint wins his previous two starts.
Is Burnin Turf the same horse now he was a year ago? Questionable, since he has started but twice since the 2022 Daytona, but the Golden Gate synthetic start can be forgiven, and in addition to possibly needing his last start, Burnin Turf didn’t get the trip he wanted that day.
Now, he’s back with an outside draw and reunited with the rider who won twice with him and was aboard in the 2022 Daytona. Burnin Turf figures to press the race’s lone speed, Fast Buck. Fast Buck can’t effectively run this far but ought to tow Burnin Turf to upper stretch, where he’ll get first run on shorter-priced closers who aren’t at all intimidating.
Lady Slipper
Trainer Mac Robertson has won the last three renewals with two horses he starts in Saturday night’s running, Clickbait and Ready to Runaway. The morning line has the latter shorter than the former, but that won’t be the case, and favored Charlie’s Penny is going to be odds-on, not 7-5. Charlie’s Penny clearly has the race’s leading credentials, but she’s running off training-track works for a new trainer and is worth opposing.
Robertson’s third entrant, It’s Her Time, is the play. The filly sharply won her debut last summer at Canterbury before taking a couple steps back. The addition of blinkers helped, and It’s Her Time finally moved forward, easily winning the Canterbury Oaks despite moving early into a strong pace. I think she’ll be just as capable sprinting as routing and is going to come back in her 4-year-old debut a faster horse than she was at 3.
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