Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Saudi Cup, Rebel Stakes, Gulfstream Park Sprint

Sometimes, one must look far afield, maybe even halfway around the world, to find value. Fine, we’re on it. The Saudi Cup goes off just as the East Coast tracks get down to Saturday business. Stick around till late afternoon for a Derby prep in Arkansas.

Saudi Cup

I have long contended (not that anyone was listening) Senor Buscador is a better horse racing around one turn than two, and here, for $20 million, he can prove it.

With a long run down the backstretch into this 1 1/8-mile race’s lone bend, the Saudi Cup presents an opportunity for Senor Buscador to show his best. This racing surface tends to favor outside paths, and Senor B almost certainly will be coming down the center. The race is absolutely jammed with pace – Hoist the Gold, Isolate, Saudi Crown, with National Treasure and Defunded not far behind – and Senor Buscador always makes the last run.

To be sure, White Abarrio, all things being equal, is the superior horse. He also is the favorite and his journey could get tricky breaking from the rail in this 14-runner field. Is he quick enough to secure a spot in the second flight?

Saudi Crown impressed in his easy Fair Grounds prep for this, but I doubt he works out the right trip, and trainer Brad Cox’s two Saudi Cup runners, Knicks Go and Mandaloun, delivered subpar showings.

Much respect for the Japanese horses. Lemon Pop gets a lot of love, but his lone start outside Japan resulted in a Dubai dud. Lemon Pop ultimately wants a furlong less than this, while Ushba Tesoro needs a furlong more. Derma Sotogake is the one, but he had some sort of setback following the Breeders’ Cup and injured his eye shipping to Saudi Arabia from Japan. He’ll be better next time.

Senor Buscador got the right setup in the Cigar Mile but encountered a massively inside-speed biased surface. Only the short Gulfstream homestretch kept him from winning the Pegasus, and the long stretch at King Abdulaziz Racecourse just might provide his connections with $10 million and us with a square-priced winner.

Rebel

Let’s take the same approach as a dozen owners and trainers with runners in the Rebel Stakes: Don’t duck a single horse.

Timberlake is the 800-pound Rebel gorilla and it’ll be no surprise if he goes off an odds-on favorite. Sure, Timberlake has turned in eye-catching workouts preparing for his first start since a fairly flat fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It’s also worth noting his signature win came on a sloppy track, and that Timberlake wasn’t the most reliable colt in 2023.

I backed Commmon Defense in the Southwest Stakes, and while that didn’t end well, I’ll back him again in the Rebel.

The morning line has Common Defense as a 30-1 shot; he’ll be shorter than that. He’s a colt with more ability and potential than several horses priced lower than he (among them, I’d contend, his Kenny McPeek-trained stablemate Northern Flame), though it’s hard to imagine win odds lower than 12-1.

Common Defense never got untracked over a sloppy, potentially rail-biased surface in the Southwest, but given the conditions, it’s not required one hold that against him. His debut performance offered many encouraging hints, and I’d rate his maiden two back, at a mile trip likely short of his best, superior to the speed figure.

All due respect to the previous jockey, but Brian Hernandez Jr. has become McPeek’s go-to guy, and he comes from Fair Grounds for this mount.

Gulfstream Park Sprint

You might have to squint to make Swirvin a key player here, but look hard enough and he comes into focus.

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Candy Man Rocket will be heavily favored, which is fine: He’s 4 for 4 over the surface, and returns from a break for a great layoff barn. I wouldn’t want to say his impressive record has been built in great part on luck – but it kind of has.

Swirvin caught my eye going into the Jersey Shore at Monmouth, which he won nicely over decent oppposition following a bizarre trip in the Carry Back. A lightly raced 4-year-old with upside, Swirvin can be a littel tricky, and he best suits a stalking trip behind speed. That didn’t happen in his November outing, but Swirvin has been working with a target in front of him, and he’s ready to run the best race of his career.

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